THE ANNOUNCEMENT by President Obama that he is scrapping the deployment of US missile defence in central Europe marks an important and welcome shift in US strategic thinking. It should significantly ease tensions with Russia ahead of next week’s meeting at the G20 summit. In all, 10 interceptor rockets were to have been stationed in Poland and a radar system based in the Czech Republic in a programme promoted by George W Bush to defend against missile launches from “rogue” states Iran and North Korea.
The decision ostensibly reflects a pragmatic response to US intelligence assessments of Iran’s difficulty in developing long-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads. The US remains as concerned as ever about its nuclear programme, but the US priority can now shift, less controversially, to developing with Nato a regional capacity in southern Europe and the Middle East to respond to the much more real threat from Iran’s short and medium range missiles.
Meanwhile, UN Security Council members are due to meet Iranian negotiators on October 1st on its nuclear programme, with the prospect of increased international sanctions on the cards if progress is not made. Developing a consensus on toughening sanctions may well have been made easier by the US decision on the missile system which Russia saw as a major irritant, clearly aimed at deterring it as much as Iran. Moscow may also be more willing to move forward in strategic arms reduction talks (Start).
The Obama move will certainly be seen in Moscow as opening a door to an improved relationship, a warming that the new Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen also signalled on Wednesday. He said in an interview he is preparing proposals for an “open-minded and unprecedented dialogue” with Russia to reduce security tensions in Europe and confront common threats. Significantly, he acknowledged that “we should also take into account that Russia has legitimate security concerns”.
None of which will go down well with the Polish or Czech governments for whom, substantial domestic disquiet notwithstanding, the US missile defence system was an important bulwark against Russia. Warsaw will be looking for alternative symbolic indications of US commitment, such as military exercises on its soil or the basing there of US troops. It is important then that Russia understands the need to reciprocate for Mr Obama’s move, whether on Iran, the Start talks, or in confidence-building approaches to its neighbours.