There are good grounds for believing that both the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionists will, in the end, endorse the plan for the new Police Service of Northern Ireland, notwithstanding its failure to meet Dr John Reid's deadline earlier this week. The Secretary of State has wisely said that while he will not alter the policing plan he is prepared to wait. There is little to be gained and much potentially to be lost by hectoring or pressuring at this point.
The gyre of history is surely complete when Northern Ireland nationalists have declared their unequivocal support for the new police, with unionists suspending their judgment. The word "historic" has been applied to the SDLP's demarche - preceded by statements from the Taoiseach and from the Catholic bishops. It is a term which has been thrown around perhaps too freely in the many twists and turns of the peace process. But in this instance it is the mot juste. In time, hopefully, Sinn Fein will also choose to buy in to the new police and to eschew its paramilitary associations.
It is not easy for those outside of Northern Ireland to understand unionist reservations and doubts about police reform. What is proposed appears entirely reasonable, progressive and equitable. But unionists fear that it will weaken the police while the reality of terrorist violence continues. The police will be routinely disarmed. The use of plastic bullets will be curtailed. The Special Branch will be reduced in size and redeployed.
Some of these apprehensions may not be unreasonable. And it is certain that if terrorism continues the new police service will not be able to cope, civilianised to the extent now proposed. Some unionists are genuinely fearful of such a scenario because of the risks it would entail both to the police themselves and to the rule of law. But a great many are simply reluctant to see the era of the old RUC - their own police force - draw to a close. There is an unwillingness to recognise that from the nationalist perspective, the RUC historically was the visible symbol on the streets of unionist supremacy, of the skewed and unjust democracy which was the old Stormont-run state. Others, often linked by kinship, see the present reforms as betraying the sacrifice and the service of the RUC over the decades.
A leap of faith is required, along with some courage and some generosity. The SDLP has done so, accepting aspects of the plan for which it feels no enthusiasm and which it must regard as necessary compromises. But the police boards will only function if there is cross-community support. The success or otherwise of the new police proposals now rests primarily with Mr David Trimble and his party. Good sense dictates that they must not let what Bishop James Mehaffey has described as this "unique opportunity" to pass. Effective policing, supported by all traditions, is central to the Belfast Agreement and the peace process. It is something which may be taken for granted in other societies. In Northern Ireland, without it, there will be nothing but the sterility and polarisation of the past.