THE TIMING of Turkey’s constitutional referendum on Sunday is no coincidence. Prime minister Tayyip Erdogan’s polling day is the 30th anniversary of the country’s last military coup, a reminder to voters of a brutal time that saw parliament and constitution suspended and thousands arrested and tortured. Many are still missing. Memories of the coup and its aftermath remain raw for the older generation while the constitution inherited from those days retains many of its authoritarian elements. It is seen as a crucial impediment to the reform and democratising process crucial to the country’s EU accession aspirations. Mr Erdogan has reminded Turks in rallies across the country of the role of the military in toppling four elected governments since 1960, and many officers have been implicated more recently in plots against the government.
The referendum battle has again turned into an all-too-familiar tussle between Turkey’s secularist opposition and Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). The latter, now in power for eight years, has its socially conservative roots in political Islam but insists it is committed to retaining Turkey’s secular state and politics, and sees itself as the Muslim equivalent of mainstream European Christian Democracy. A victory for either closely matched camp is seen as a likely harbinger of the results of elections due by July next year.
The most controversial proposals, backed by the EU but seen by the opposition as an AKP attempt to take over the troublesome, secularist-dominated courts, would add more judges to the constitutional court, limit their terms in office and allow parliament to elect some of them. Less contentiously, but just as important, the reforms would also allow civilian courts to try military officers accused of crimes against the state and repeal an article that forbids prosecution of generals who staged the 1980 coup.
The reform package, though welcome, does not go far enough for human rights groups or for the EU which would like to see more far-reaching amendments to end restrictions on free speech and guarantee Turks fuller rights to express ethnic identities and religious beliefs, not least the wearing of scarves in college. An Erdogan victory will certainly strengthen the AKP electorally but it should also help create a political climate in which he can continue down the road of reform, a climate that could also facilitate sorely needed talks – opposed by the military – between the state and the country’s oppressed Kurdish minority.