David Trimble's announcement that he intends to resign as First Minister of the Northern Ireland Executive on July 1st unless there is substantial progress on IRA decommissioning by that date seems to have come as a bombshell to political parties on both sides of the Border. The UUP leader's statement has been attacked as an election stunt, designed to help his party's candidates in the forthcoming British poll.
This is a bizarre accusation for any politician to level against another. Winning popular support at the polls is the first, necessary task facing any party leader who wishes to translate his political aspirations into reality.
It is critically important that David Trimble's dwindling band of supporters be seen to do well in the British election. A result which strengthened the forces of anti-agreement unionism would greatly weaken his position and would probably lead to his losing the leadership of his party.
This is not the first time that a British general election has bedevilled political progress in Northern Ireland. In February 1974, just weeks after the first power-sharing executive under Brian Faulkner took office, Edward Heath called a snap poll. Unionists opposed to the Sunningdale Agreement won 11 of the 12 seats. As historian Paul Bew has put it, the result "effectively destroyed the legitimacy of the power-sharing executive in the Protestant community".
It didn't immediately kill off the agreement, but it provided its opponents with the mandate they needed to destroy the Sunningdale deal. By the end of May, following the Ulster Workers' strike, Brian Faulkner had resigned and the power-sharing executive was wound up. For the next 25 years, all attempts to establish a devolved and inclusive administration in Northern Ireland were doomed. More important, 3,000 people lost their lives in the violence.
IT is against this background that David Trimble's decision must be judged. He is haunted, quite reasonably, by the ghost of Brian Faulkner. He knows there is no point being a reforming leader if your own people reject your ideas at the polls. Already there have been dire predictions that the UUP may be facing "meltdown" at the polls.
The UUP leader has been in buoyant form of late. Trimble is always at his best when his back is pressed hard against the wall. He has been telling anyone willing to listen that he and his colleagues will fare much better than the pundits expect. But even if this does happen, his troubles will be far from over. One way or another, the number of Unionist MPs opposed to the Belfast Agreement is likely to increase. One can always hope, but it is hard to see that there will be any significant move on decommissioning by the UUP leader's deadline of July 1st.
Trimble's strategy is that his threat of resignation will at least allow the UUP to fight the election as a united party. Candidates like Jeffrey Donaldson will be forced to stress that the leader is prepared to lay his own political future on the line over decommissioning.
If the UUP does well, Trimble's authority will be greatly enhanced. He will be able to argue that the broad unionist community trusts his judgment, not only on decommissioning but on the agreement itself, as offering the best way forward. That will make it easier for the two governments to come up with a fudge which will enable him to withdraw his letter of resignation.
It may even allow him to lift the ban on Sinn Fein ministers attending meetings of the Inter-Governmental Council. If Tony Blair wins a serious majority in the British poll, the British Prime Minister will be able to bring new energy to the task of saving the accord, and new pressures to bear on the parties in Northern Ireland.
It's a huge gamble on Trimble's part. Already, there is speculation, reported by this newspaper's London Editor, Frank Millar, that the British and Irish governments are considering a worst-case scenario that would lead to another suspension of the Executive.
NOBODY said it was going to be easy. But, as always with Northern Ireland, there are also reasons for hope. Very many people, unionists as well as nationalists, want the Belfast Agreement to survive. They know that the institutions that have been set up under it are working well.
Yesterday, in Dublin, Liz O'Donnell opened a conference, organised by the Centre for Cross-Border Studies, which looked at some of these benefits. She made the point that we now have a level of cross-Border co-operation on a wide range of issues and that this would not have been possible without the structures set up under the Good Friday agreement. Unionist politicians, who were initially mistrustful of these structures, now see them delivering tangible benefits and judge them accordingly.
At the end of the day, contrary to the suspicions of many voters, most politicians want to do what is best for the people they represent.
But, to do that effectively, they first need to win votes. If David Trimble's statement this week brings success to his party in next month's election, that will help to secure the future of the Good Friday agreement and the tangible benefits that have flowed from it.
mholland@irish-times.ie