It is difficult to imagine a more tragic or damaging event than the NATO attack on a refugee convoy in Kosovo in which 64 people are reported to have been killed. The alliance's spokesmen yesterday accepted the blame for what they described as an operational mistake and deeply regretted it. Their admission is praiseworthy but leaves many detailed questions unanswered. The sorry episode sharply exposes the perils of modern air warfare and any idea that it is free of risk to civilians. It highlights the barbarism of ethnic cleansing which has driven up to a million people out of their homes in Kosovo and must add to the growing momentum to find a political settlement that can deal justly with their plight.
According to the pilot's account of how the attack took place, he thought he was witnessing an act of ethnic cleansing involving a military convoy setting fire to a series of village houses. He believed the vehicles targeted were military ones after reconnaissance runs at a height of 15,000 feet. His orders allowed him to open fire on the convoy. This is in keeping with NATO's strategy of attacking Serb forces on the ground in Kosovo, in addition to the missile attacks directed against them.
The trouble is that such air attacks are a very blunt instrument when confronting Serb troops, police and paramilitary forces engaged in the grim campaign that has cleared out so many people in so short a time. It is impossible to stop them with air power alone, especially when they mix military vehicles in with refugee convoys and camouflage them so effectively next to burnt-out villages.
In assessing this tragic military mistake, account should also be taken of the reaction of Kosovan refugees. There is little sign of condemnation, but rather of deep regret at apparently inevitable military accidents and calls for NATO's campaign against Serbia to be stepped up with the addition of ground troops and arms for the Kosovo Liberation Army. Such are the dynamics of this rapidly escalating war in a highly volatile region. Macedonia and Montenegro are rapidly being drawn into it, as is Albania, now that it has made its ports and military facilities available to NATO.
Confronted with this situation, grave choices arise for all concerned. The logic of escalation points increasingly to an enhanced air campaign but also to the use of ground troops in a conventional war against Serbia. There has been neither the political nor military preparation of NATO populations for this.
That is why the diplomatic initiatives of the last few days are so important alongside the military campaign. President Yeltsin's appointment of Mr Victor Chernomyrdin is a clear signal to the West that he is willing to seek an accommodation which would allow the United Nations to act in the crisis. The European Union's welcome diplomatic initiative also engages the Russians and the UN in the search for a solution. It could be imposed on Serbia if necessary, as the French foreign minister, Mr Hubert Vedrine, suggested yesterday in Bucharest.
It must include the withdrawal of Serb forces from Kosovo, the return of the refugees and the presence of an international force to implement a settlement.