ANALYSIS:Fired-up leader Reg Empey is emphatic the UUP is back and poses a serious threat to DUP, writes GERRY MORIARTY
‘CHANGE IS coming Peter – whether you like it or not!” So said the Ulster Unionist Party leader Sir Reg Empey at his party’s annual conference in the Europa Hotel in Belfast on Saturday. That’s Peter Robinson he was addressing.
A couple of years ago such a statement would have drawn guffaws from Robinson and his DUP colleagues, scepticism from political commentators, and “you must be joking, Reg” from many in his own party.
But Saturday was different. His taunt to the DUP and its leader drew applause. There is a discernible positive change to the UUP – there is no doubt about that. “We are back in style,” was how its MEP Jim Nicholson put it.
The fact that Nicholson was elected to Europe ahead of the DUP candidate Diane Dodds in June contributed to the UUP feelgood factor. But the other defining matter that is assisting the revival is the David Cameron factor and the UUP’s hook-up with the Conservative Party through UCUNF, the dreadfully titled Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force.
There is something about the UCUNF project that Ulster Unionists like. There appears to be a real chance that what has given the UUP a lift could translate to mainstream unionism, who will be voting in the British general election sometime before June next year.
The link-up seems to fit with the middle-class unionist psyche, providing a direct link to London and opening up the possibility of UUP and Northern politicians in a Cameron government if the Tories defeat Labour.
But Empey knows his problem is that he is coming from such a low Westminster base, and it is questionable now whether there is any base there at all. The UUP’s sole MP is Sylvia Hermon in North Down but she didn’t turn up on Saturday. She was absent last year too but that was explainable due to the recent death of her husband, the former RUC chief constable Sir John Hermon. There are real questions over where her allegiance now lies. She was keeping her counsel on Saturday but it is well known that she can’t abide the Tories.
At least for the UUP the only way is up. Their senior strategists say they have a chance of taking up to four Westminster seats - three from the DUP and one from the SDLP. Damaging the DUP to such an extent sounds risible, but the strategists put up arguments that can’t be discounted.
For instance, one UUP insider said there was a chance of the UUP taking Jeffrey Donaldson’s seat in Lagan Valley. Now that does sound ridiculous. But he pointed out that Donaldson will face opposition from Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice, which has already caused the DUP trouble in the constituency, and a fragmented unionist vote with the Cameron factor could cause a shock result.
The potential UUP candidate in Lagan Valley is David Trimble’s wife Daphne. Wouldn’t that be fun – Trimble versus Donaldson, the rematch, the Rumble in the Valley! The UUP believes that the same factors could yield it a seat against the Rev William McCrea in South Antrim, which has see-sawed between the UUP and DUP, and that there yet could be a Tory-UUP-DUP deal that would give it a free run against SDLP MP Dr Alasdair McDonnell in South Belfast.
DUP strategists themselves are conscious of the UCUNF threat and are working to counter the challenge. Come the election it could go any way. The DUP could hold all its nine seats and the SDLP may still hold South Belfast. Equally, on a very good day and with Lady Hermon on board, there is an actual chance of four UUP seats. What’s important here is that unlike two years ago Ulster Unionists have a real sense of hope and drive. Through Cameron and UCUNF Reg Empey and the Ulster Unionists have an idea to sell to middle unionism.
Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor