With but a few days left until the Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, suspends the Northern Ireland institutions for the third and final time, reports continue to circulate of an imminent move by the IRA on decommissioning. Commentators detect signals in the public utterances of Sinn FΘin leaders. The Taoiseach's comments at the Fianna Fβil ardfheis appeared to indicate a high degree of confidence that an initiative is on the way.
Against a deteriorating background, it can hardly be too soon. It must be hoped that whatever may happen will be of sufficient magnitude and that it will be done in time to enable Mr David Trimble and Mr Seamus Mallon to be reinstated as First Minister and Deputy First Minister respectively. There is no certainty on this, however. Threatening voices from Mr Trimble's enemies within the Ulster Unionist Party are attempting to raise the bar, arguing that a gesture now from the IRA is too little, too late.
This line of reasoning betokens a chilling indifference to the long-term welfare of the community. Reasonable unionists know that and will recognise the political ambitions that drive it. But with each passing month and with each new evasion and twist by the IRA, the numbers of unionists who may be inclined to be "reasonable" have dwindled. Mr Trimble has argued and fought within his own ranks while assuring Dr Reid that the institutions can be saved if there is actual putting of weapons beyond use - permanently and verifiably. But there are many who will not be so persuaded.
Continuing loyalist violence and the sectarian viciousness demonstrated against schoolchildren in Ardoyne do not make it any easier for the IRA and Sinn FΘin to convince their constituency that it is time to disarm. Many nationalists will reason that Dr Reid's "certification" of the UDA and LVF ceasefires proves that the nationalist community must not be left undefended by the IRA. But paradoxically, the Secretary of State's "certification" could also help the republican leadership to persuade their people that Dr Reid and Mr Blair are willing to face down loyalist violence.
Republicans have the opportunity now to seize and consolidate the high moral ground. By proving that they have turned their backs on violence, they can move to pole position in the democratic politics of Northern Ireland. And they can also strengthen their holding in the politics of this state. The climate in which they could sustain both a paramilitary and a political identity has changed irrevocably and their strategists must know that. Simple pragmatism, if nothing else, should lead them now to concreting or otherwise rendering the arms dumps unusable.