East Timor has become a crucial issue for the future of Indonesia and the credibility of the United Nations following the extreme reaction to its people's decisive vote for independence.
Anti-independence militias in league with the Indonesian armed forces are in effect staging a revolt against the outcome of the voting, which the Indonesian government is pledged to uphold. Thousands of lives are under threat. If they succeed the democratic future, not only of the small East Timor territory, but of the vast Indonesian archipelago, are imperilled.
Reports from Dili clearly indicate that the militias are intent on subverting the vote for independence, which they have rejected as biased. Tens of thousands of people have been driven to seek refuge in police stations or Catholic Church property and there are horrifying reports of them being fired upon. UN officials and international journalists are being surrounded prior to being silenced and expelled so that the insurrection can proceed unreported. It appears the government in Jakarta is powerless to prevent this happening or even prepared to capitulate to an accomplished fact, since the foreign minister has himself taken to criticising the UN team in the same terms as the militias.
There can be no doubt that last week's vote was fair and authoritative in its result, as has been confirmed by the UN supervising team and numerous international observers and media.
The very size of the vote against independence also confirms the result, since it matches very closely expectations based on what is known about the demographic balance in the territory. Nor can there be any doubt that the revolt was foreseen by those with a good knowledge of the region who issued many warnings.
Given this, it is extraordinary that the Indonesian army's continuing responsibility for security should be accepted so uncritically. It is incapable of being impartial. Unless this is realised and acted upon immediately, there is a grave danger that East Timor could go the genocidal way of Rwanda while Indonesia follows the military dictatorship route taken by Burma.
In these circumstances a huge responsibility rests on the international community and major regional powers to act rapidly and decisively. Indonesia is very vulnerable to international pressure because it needs so much help to recover from economic collapse and unstable political transition.
Having taken on the task of supervising the referendum it falls to the UN Security Council to ensure the transition to independence is made effectively. If ever there were a case for assembling an international force under the terms of Chapter VII of the UN Charter this is it. The Indonesian government has shown itself incapable of providing security to an imperilled people. It will be up to the major regional powers which meet this week at the APEC summit in New Zealand to give the UN the wherewithal to intervene.