Inevitably, most public attention following the Labour Party's landslide victory in the Wirral South by-election, turns on whether it foretells a similar result in the forthcoming British general election.
The very proximity of the two events increases this result's significance, as do the 73 per cent turnout and the fact that it is precisely in line with running opinion poll findings. This was, moreover, no flash-in-the-pan produced by a volatile electorate, but a hefty swing of Conservative voters to the opposition party. Reproduced on a national scale, it would give Mr Tony Blair a handsome majority in the House of Commons, as Mr Major himself admitted on television yesterday evening.
The result loses Mr Major his majority. It was no coincidence that Thursday should have seen the most significant concession he has yet made to the Ulster Unionists, after agreement was reached to set up a Northern Ireland brand Committee at Westminster. It will be able to question ministers conduct and hold the equivalent of second and third reading debates on matters exclusive to the North. Although the committee is not expected to assemble before the election, it is an important gesture towards integrationist unionism and a corresponding rebuff to nationalist party. But how sustainable would it be under a Labour Government committed to introduce a devolved assembly in Scotland and under pressure to do the same in Northern Ireland?
At least the concession buys Mr Major a little more time to turn public opinion around after the disastrous Wirral result. He has calculated all along that the longer the campaign, the greater the chance of convincing core Tory supporters to return to the party fold. Most observers now expect the election will be called for May est. The fines of Tory policy are clear: to warn voters that Labour would threaten economic recovery and endanger the United Kingdom by its plans for devolution and its accommodating EU policies.
On the evidence of this result, the Tories have a great deal of ground to recover. Their recurrent faction-fighting over Europe exposes their divisions at least as much as they expect Labour's disagreements to surface over the course of a long campaign. Mr Blair has prevented the emergence of clear blue water between Labour and the Conservatives on Europe and other issues on which he thinks Labour may be vulnerable so much so, indeed, as to prompt the question whether core Labour supporters may be alienated by the intensive wooing of kiddie England.
This seems unlikely. The overall impression from the Wirral South result is of a deeply-rooted mood for change shared not only by Labour supporters and floating voters, but also by a significant proportion of those who have voted Conservative on four occasions in the last 18 years. It would be foolish to write off such a canny and personable campaigner as Mr Major, but this by-election result lengthens the odds against his party winning a fifth successive term of office.