The election for the Northern Ireland Forum has been a milestone in the efforts to negotiate a lasting political settlement. It has shown that the electorate is vitally concerned about the talks scheduled to begin on June 10th. Whoever - and whatever - won, it was not apathy. Republicans have been shown that there is a way forward through the ballot box. And although the major unionist parties have complained that their vote was affected by the large number of competing pro union parties, the final outcome was not changed significantly - though notice has been served of the potential for diversity in unionism.
It has indeed been a worthwhile exercise. The North has a mandated Forum, vindicating Mr David Trimble's demand for the election and Mr Major's decision to hold it, and giving the talks process the necessary democratic backing. Mr Trimble has an opportunity now to show that the opposition of nationalists to the body, which Sinn Fein has said it boycott and about which the SDLP has reservations, was ill founded, and that it will have a role to play in developing political understanding without looking for de facto policy making functions.
Sinn Fein has secured a much more substantial mandate than expected. This must represent a significant achievement for Mr Gerry Adams and his supporters who urge the political pathway. There is of course the danger that Mr Adams may use this new found strength to press for admission to the talks without a reinstatement of the ceasefire. This, emphatically, must not be allowed to happen. The Irish and British governments said yesterday that the condition remains; and with reason. Mr Adams cannot claim to have a democratic mandate, however many votes are cast for his party, as long as the link between Sinn Fein and the IRA connects him to a policy of continuing, threatened violence. Even now, while subscribing to the Mitchell principles, Mr Adams apparently cannot bring himself to call for the ceasefire to be restored.
At the same time, many of the 116,000 people who voted for Sinn Fein yesterday more than twice as many as supported its candidates in the European Parliament election only two years ago, and substantially more than voted for Sinn Fein on any previous occasion - believe unequivocally in its peace credentials. Almost certainly these include a large majority of voters who have supported it for the first time, as well as a proportion of its traditional backing. This is an important outcome of yesterday's vote which ought to be a factor in persuading the IRA leadership of the expectations of many republicans. There is no viable alternative to political dialogue.
Whether the IRA does reach this conclusion or not is something over which the ordinary people, unionist or nationalist, have no direct influence. Mr Adams also denies that he can influence the decision. But his own position in the talks process depends on it absolutely: even assuming he were able to override the bar on participation before a ceasefire, he cannot force others to negotiate on his terms.
These are not the only considerations. The likelihood of comprehensive talks has been reinforced by the success of the UDP and the PUP in securing regional seats in the Forum, and the SDLP, by coming second in voter support (though not in the number of seats) will be able to negotiate with a strengthened mandate. Sinn Fein's absence will serve no useful purpose, least of all its own. Mr John Hume's appeal for the IRA to "listen to the will and wish of the people of Ireland as a whole" must not be allowed to fall on deaf ears.