The result of the ballot by secondary teachers on the recent Labour Court proposals to end their dispute, will surprise many. There was a general expectation - certainly among hardliners in the ASTI - that members would vote overwhelmingly against the offer. In the event, the court's proposals were rejected - but only by a very tight margin.
It is a remarkable result, given that few in the ASTI leadership spoke up for the Labour Court offer. To his credit, the general secretary, Mr Charlie Lennon, observed the original decision of the union central executive that members should be free to make up their own minds.
But others within the union pushed hard in print and on the airwaves for a No vote. In the event, they prevailed - but only just. It is clear that a large minority within the union has been unhappy with the manner in which their pay campaign has been conducted. The overwhelming vote against reimposition of the ban on exam work should also lead to some soul-searching within the union. The threat to withdraw from the Leaving and Junior Certificate exams was, supposedly, the ASTI's "nuclear option". On the basis of last night's result, it is clear that the vast majority of ASTI members - even those lukewarm about the Labour Court offer - are unhappy with a strategy which targets vulnerable exam students.
The hardliners within the union will say that a rejection of the Labour Court ballot - even by a tight margin - is still significant. The readiness of ASTI members to press on with a troubled and much-criticised campaign may reflect a siege mentality. But it also underpins the deep crisis of morale among many secondary teachers about their pay, conditions and, not least, their diminishing status. It is to be hoped that the Teaching Forum, promised by the Minister for Education, Dr Woods, will help to address these issues.
ASTI now faces the more immediate problem of how to proceed with its 30 per cent pay campaign. Its members will be balloted on a range of fresh options - including a withdrawal of supervision - later this month. The union has promised a campaign of renewed vigour and intensity. But it is difficult to see how it can deliver on this promise. An arrangement for paid supervision may be in place by the beginning of the new school year in September. The ASTI will find it hard to opt out of this, if the other teaching unions accept it. There must also be a wider question about the stomach for battle among the membership. A very significant majority clearly have had enough.
When it meets next Wednesday, the ASTI Central Executive Council will have much to ponder. The plan is to ballot later this month on a new range of industrial action in September. But the options before the union are narrowing by the day. It still faces a stark choice. It can continue its war of attrition with very little confidence of success. Or, it can join the other teaching unions in the benchmarking pay review body. At the very least, the union should enter benchmarking with the option to withdraw from the process if it is unhappy. That might be the best way to end a dispute which has damaged students, parents, the high standing of teachers and, not least, the ASTI itself.