The timing in July of Mr Tony Blair's "absolute deadline" for establishing a Northern Ireland executive was maladroit, coinciding as it did with the peak of the marching season. It is hardly more propitious that Senator George Mitchell's review of the Belfast Agreement should begin just a few days before the publication of the Patten report on policing. A conspiratorial mind could be inclined to suspect manipulation of the political calendar in a bid to retard progress.
Senator Mitchell embarks upon his task in an atmosphere of deep pessimism and doubt. Both the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein approach the review with declared reservations and with calls from the ranks for abstention. For all that many of the voices-off are contrived, the respective leaders must be acutely aware of the very limited room for manoeuvre which now exists on both sides. There is a spreading belief in nationalist circles that the unionists will never accept full power-sharing. From the opposite perspective - and increasingly in the view of non-aligned observers - it appears that whatever Sinn Fein may say, the IRA has no intention of giving up its traditional activities.
Senator Mitchell has but a narrow strip of ground upon which to operate. He has indicated that he will not engage in a process which is either open-ended in time or which seeks to renegotiate the Belfast Agreement. He will attempt to present a formula or a sequencing in which an executive can be formed and in which the decommissioning of IRA weapons can begin. It seems from what he has said - although he has not used the term - that he will present a take-itor-leave-it proposal.
There have been small signs of hope. Some Sinn Fein representatives and unionists are reported to have had exploratory discussions in recent weeks. And Sinn Fein sources have let it be known that their July offer of an assurance that decommissioning could take place can be put on the table once again. That would still have required a leap of faith by the unionists and it is regrettable that they had neither the courage nor the imagination to do so, effectively putting Sinn Fein and the IRA to the test of their word. But it would be foolish to pin too many hopes on the possibility that what was rejected in June might be acceptable now, in an atmosphere of deeper distrust and even more hardened positions.
What if Senator Mitchell fails? Is the will of the people of Ireland, expressed at referendum last year, to be swept aside? Is Sinn Fein or the UUP willing to carry the burden of effectively subverting the Belfast Agreement and sabotaging the best chance of a lasting peace for many years to come? Regrettably, it is not unthinkable that within a few weeks the two governments may have to address themselves to a fallback position in which the 1985 Hillsborough Agreement remains the basis of governance. Hopefully, even in that scenario, there would be no return to full scale violence. But, in a continuing vacuum of democracy, the paramilitaries and the racketeers would flourish as never before. It is a poisonous prospect.
Senator Mitchell cannot work miracles. If the will is not present on all sides to make the Belfast Agreement work he cannot force it into being. The unionists and Sinn Fein have to realise that they need each other and that they have to make forward movement possible for each other. There have been glimmers of that awareness along the way. If the entire process is not to fail they will have to be rediscovered and amplified in the coming days and weeks.