The fifth anniversary of the Belfast Agreement has come and gone without the balancing acts of completion necessary to restore trust and stability to the political process in Northern Ireland. Another deadline for decommissioning has been missed.
Yet, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, made the right call at the eleventh hour yesterday when they decided to postpone the publication of a joint declaration in Hillsborough Castle.
This blueprint for progress from the two Governments was intended to be the prelude to a statement and/or act from the IRA that their war in Northern Ireland was over. The effective standing down of republican paramilitarism in all its acts and deeds was to be the quid pro quo for major concessions from the British Government and the Ulster Unionist Party on demilitarisation, policing, justice and the stability of the political institutions. But, in the better judgment of Mr Ahern and Mr Blair yesterday, it could not be delivered because the necessary clarity and certainty would not follow.
Despite claims and counter-claims from Mr Ahern, Mr Blair and the president of Sinn Féin, Mr Adams, the missing ingredient in the final package was the form of words and/or actions from the IRA to instil confidence in both communities that the war is over. The two Governments are reported to have been made aware of the contents of the IRA's statement in the last couple of days. They judged that the words were ambiguous and inadequate in the circumstances. There were contacts with Sinn Féin on Wednesday to bring more clarity to the draft. It was only yesterday morning, however, that they arrived at the joint conclusion that if it were not enough for them, it would hardly satisfy Mr David Trimble's requirements for restoration.
After last night's meeting between Mr Ahern and Mr Blair at 10 Downing Street, the Taoiseach suggested that no more than one or two issues were outstanding out of an original 300 or 400 points in their declaration. More in hope than expectation, he said that they could be back in Hillsborough Castle today. Mr Blair seemed less optimistic. A time factor now complicates the picture, however, with Mr Trimble's Ulster Unionist Council meeting scheduled for April 26th to enable the Assembly election to be held a month later on May 29th.
The two Governments have put a great deal of work and time over the past six months into the negotiation of the latest declaration. Mr Blair characterised the current exercise at the start as a call for final acts of completion all round: on demilitarisation, policing, decommissioning and the mechanism for bringing stability to the political institutions. Mr Ahern and Mr Blair planned to deliver the blueprint yesterday and found that they could not do so. They were right. The days of fudge, obfuscation and weasel words are over after five years. If the war is over, a clear way must be found to make the IRA communicate it with certainty for all.