A GOVERNMENT decision to hold byelections on the same day as the European and local elections may prove least damaging to itself. Had it deferred the Dublin South and Dublin Central contests until the autumn, it would have faced a barrage of criticism from the Opposition parties that would have further reduced its prospects.
There was also a danger that a second Lisbon referendum might become entangled with the Dáil contests, sharpening inter-party rivalry and facilitating a vote against the Government on both fronts. By choosing to face the electorate on a broad canvas, Ministers have opted to take a hiding in June in the hope that public anger over their mishandling of the economy will fade with time.
Fianna Fáil activists were surprised by the announcement. Their selection conventions will now be held next week. And while Fine Gael moved a writ in the Dáil to force the Government’s hand on the issue, it was also unprepared, as were the Labour Party and Sinn Féin. The political focus had been on the European and local elections where Fianna Fáil is expecting a drubbing. The addition of two byelections to that volatile mix is likely to exert further pressure on the leadership of Brian Cowen.
On the basis of results from the last general election, Fianna Fáil candidates should be favourites. But the situation has changed so dramatically since 2007 that political commentators are dismissing their chances. Back then, Fianna Fáil took 44 per cent of the vote in Dublin Central and 41 per cent in Dublin South. Their nearest challengers stood at 18 and 27 per cent respectively in the two constituencies. The last Irish Times opinion poll, in February, showed Fianna Fáil to be trailing both Fine Gael and the Labour Party by large margins in Dublin constituencies. In spite of that, local personalities can make a difference. And one wonders what impact some intensive canvassing by former taoiseach Bertie Ahern might have in Dublin Central.
Preparations for defeat and victory are already in hand. Fianna Fáil is openly talking down its prospects, so that the scale of defeat can be minimised. Fine Gael is trying to control expectations, following strong showings in the European and local elections of 2004 and recent opinion polls, in order to avoid disappointment. The Labour Party is drafting local candidates to absorb a sudden flood of support. And Sinn Féin and the Green Party are regrouping and hoping for better times.
Speculation has grown that the public trauma generated by massive unemployment, a collapse in Government revenues and unprecedented tax increases could cause a rejection of the established political order, with Fianna Fáil being deposed from its pre-eminent position. It is difficult to contemplate such a development, given that Fianna Fáil has remained the largest party in the State for the past 77 years.
According to opinion polls, a momentous change in voting intentions is taking place. Results from the various elections may indicate just how radical that shift is likely to become.