Majorities within both the unionist and nationalist communities in Northern Ireland believe that an executive should be formed and arms decommissioning commence, as scheduled by the two governments in the document The Way Forward, according to the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today. The findings of the survey will provide support for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, in their efforts to secure the co-operation of the pro-agreement parties. The results should also encourage the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr David Trimble, and the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, to "jump together".
There was a strong underlying determination by Ulster Unionist Party supporters to build on the advances already made and to avoid a return to violence. By a two-to-one majority, they favoured the formation of an executive on July 18th, and an even larger percentage believed that decommissioning should go ahead as planned. Perhaps more importantly, a majority within the entire unionist community favoured the two main steps forward proposed by the governments.
Sinn Fein and Mr Adams will also find encouragement for the negotiating position they adopted at Stormont. Not only is nationalist and republican opinion overwhelmingly in favour of The Way Forward proposals, North and South of the Border, but almost two-thirds of Sinn Fein supporters believe arms decommissioning should begin as scheduled. In addition, 60 per cent of Sinn Fein supporters in the North favour the call by the Taoiseach for an IRA statement of intent on decommissioning. Such an initiative would be of immense significance at this time, reflecting courage and a commitment to the democratic process.
In spite of the broadly positive response to the proposals made by the two governments, there is deep concern within the unionist community that Mr Blair's guarantees of fail-safe legislation are not sufficient. This is understandable, given the persistent campaign that has been waged against the Belfast Agreement by the DUP and the public reservations expressed about The Way Forward by Mr Trimble and the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party. There is also an obvious cleavage on the question of whether an executive should continue in existence without parties that do not abide by the rules of the agreement. Four out of five unionists favour such a sanction, as against 57 per cent of SDLP voters and 27 per cent from Sinn Fein.
At the same time, there is a world-weary acceptance by unionists and nationalists - and in this State - that all weapons will not be put beyond use by paramilitaries by the deadline of May 2000 and that Gen John de Chastelain is unlikely to be successful in that task. This pessimism over arms decommission was diluted somewhat when people were asked whether the agreement would be implemented in full. Fifty-six per cent of Sinn Fein supporters were very or fairly confident it would happen, compared to 73 per cent for the SDLP and 32 per cent for the Ulster Unionists.
A lack of trust between the political parties is still the greatest enemy of the Belfast Agreement, as can be seen from this opinion poll. In spite of that, the two communities are anxious to work the agreement, with all its flaws, rather than slip back into nascent civil war. In such circumstances, leadership is vital. The time has come for Mr Trimble to listen to his people, rather than to disaffected political colleagues and enemies, and to take his courage in his hands.