IN SPITE of voter disenchantment and a tendency to change political preferences, Fine Gael and the Labour Party enter the first week of the general election campaign with a powerful wind at their backs. The parties are the clear choice to form the next government by one-third of the electorate, according to an Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll, while an even larger proportion believes – notwithstanding their own voting intentions – that such will be the outcome.
Expectations that a new government will improve the economic situation are muted, with only a majority of the top income earners taking a positive view. Nearly half of those questioned believe a new government will have no impact of the situation but, significantly, only 4 per cent think it can make matters worse.
Many Fianna Fáil supporters refuse to accept that change may be beneficial. They also form the only cohort where a majority thinks it will not be possible to renegotiate better terms for the EU/IMF bailout. Other voters believe, by a 10-point margin, that it can be done. This gap grows to 20 points among wealthy respondents. Perhaps the most striking aspect of the opinion poll is a loss of confidence in the ability of Fianna Fáil to stage a comeback or to form a viable coalition arrangement with other parties. Having held power for the past 13 years, only 21 per cent of the electorate would like to see it return in a range of combinations involving Fine Gael, the Labour Party, Sinn Féin and Independents. The most favoured option, at 9 per cent, involves a coalition with Fine Gael.
For other parties, the composition of the next government generates conflicting views. Strong majorities within both Fine Gael and the Labour Party favour their parties doing a deal. The next most popular combination involves the Labour Party/Sinn Féin/left-leaning parties and Independents while, marginally behind it, comes a coalition involving Fine Gael and Independents.
Then there is the leadership issue. Fine Gael’s poll position has seen support for Enda Kenny as taoiseach grow to 24 per cent, marginally behind Eamon Gilmore at 26. Top income earners and farmers favour Mr Kenny; others opt for Mr Gilmore. On a discordant note, Mr Kenny attracts only 55 per cent support within Fine Gael. Mr Martin, however, is the third choice for taoiseach with 23 per cent support.
No matter what combination of parties from the next government, the electorate is firm about what its priorities should be. This holds true across the political spectrum. The creation of employment is regarded as the primary task of any incoming government, followed by correction of the public finances. With one in eight people out of work and emigration levels rising, the focus on job creation is understandable. Sinn Féin has unveiled a 160,000 jobs programme. But Fine Gael and the Labour Party are not far behind. They have also moved closer on fiscal policy, while broad agreement exists on issues of health, political reform and accountability. Political gaps are closing.