NOT BEFORE time, the Government has this week published the Lisbon Treaty Referendum Bill giving details of how the Constitution would be amended if the people vote in its favour.
A Referendum Commission has been appointed. But we have yet to hear the date of the referendum and the precise question it will ask. Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has left even his Cabinet colleagues guessing on whether it will be held in late May or early June - perhaps because he wants to disable the No side, limit the impact of political surprises, or delay the application of more stringent rules about the fairness and balance of publicly funded information campaigns.
It is an unsatisfactory state of affairs, which has delayed a proper launch of the political campaign for and against the treaty. While there are good reasons not to elongate the campaign proper unreasonably beyond the public's normal attention span, such a complex and important issue needs an ordered timetable to provide information and stimulate debate. Political tactics about the timing of general elections are quite inappropriate for referendums, which require a higher standard of political trust between political leaders and the electorate.
Opinion polls show there is so far a shallow majority in favour of the treaty, and a very large number of don't knows and voters who are undecided. Research into public attitudes on successive EU treaty referendums reveals that the better informed people are, the more they tend to approve what is being proposed, but that the crucial determinant of attitudes is vigorous campaigning. The No side won the first Nice referendum in 2001 on a very low turnout because those in favour took the electorate for granted. In the following year the second referendum on that treaty was carried because the Yes side turned out in much greater numbers.
There are many indications that on this occasion the organisational lessons of the Nice experience have been learned by the main parties in favour of the treaty. Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators are being pressurised to inform themselves about it and prepare local campaigns in favour. The Greens will have an open campaign, but most of its members want to see the treaty passed. The Labour Party has taken a strong stand on the Yes side. Fine Gael seems less pronounced as yet, not wanting to weaken its campaign on Mr Ahern's personal finances. The No side covers a wide span of political views on European affairs, but is well prepared, while Sinn Féin sees a real opportunity to retrieve ground lost in the general election.
All of this political energy now needs to be translated into a constructive campaign on the treaty and informing voters on its contents. That can only really begin when a date is set. The Bill published this week contains a supplementary guarantee about Ireland's participation in a common EU defence without a further referendum. This issue, and the others dealt with in the Lisbon Treaty, provide plenty of material for real political debate. We now need to know when voting will be held.