The main political parties have found various reasons to be pleased by the outcome of the local and European elections. But the most obvious winner, in terms of positioning for the next general election, must be Sinn Fein. The party has made significant gains in the inner city areas of Dublin and Cork, as well as increasing its level of representation in the border counties. Because of that, and the solid showing by a number of its candidates in the European Parliament elections, it could be expected to increase its Dail representation significantly in the next contest. If the results of these elections encourage the republican movement to reject its militant past and embrace democratic politics on both sides of the border, they will have served a positive purpose. Greater confidence in the political process within republicanism can only assist towards a resolution of the arms decommissioning controversy that is at present threatening the Belfast Agreement.
Fianna Fail will be somewhat relieved by the outcome, given the difficulties experienced by the party in terms of the various tribunals and the Sheedy affair. It was set to lose one of its seven European Parliament seats, although it performed particularly strongly in Munster. Its local election vote declined slightly, but good vote management and a careful spread of candidates should help the party regain a portion of the 80 seats it lost back in 1991. In general terms, however, the pattern of these elections does not promise a sudden revival in the party's fortunes. An overall Dail majority for Fianna Fail must still be regarded as a very distant dream.
Fine Gael has made solid, consistent progress. Its share of the vote in the European Parliament elections rose and it performed strongly in Dublin and in Leinster where it threatened the two seats held by the Green Party. Performance was patchy at local authority level. Fine Gael's deputy leader, Ms Nora Owen, failed to be elected in Dublin but, at the same time, the party added to its list of councillors and will be challenging strongly for a number of new Dail seats in the next elections.
The Labour Party had a bad European election. Its vote collapsed in Munster, Leinster and Connacht/Ulster and Proinsias de Rossa took the last seat in Dublin while Bernie Malone bowed out. The situation was somewhat better in the council elections, particularly in Dublin, where its looked like securing representation in the major electoral districts. While the merger with Democratic Left failed to provide the bonus that had been hoped for, the party lost little ground. Given that the Labour Party and the Workers' Party (from which Democratic Left split) enjoyed particularly good local authority results in 1991, the outcome might be regarded as a `bedding-in' of the new organisation.
There was mixed news for the Progressive Democrats. While the share of the party's vote declined sharply from the 1991 level, a number of new, high-profile candidates were returned and they will strengthen the party's team for the next general election.
The Green Party had some cause for satisfaction. It performed well in the European elections and retained both of its seats, although with considerable difficulty. It failed to make the advances it had hoped for at local level where its vote was practically unchanged since 1991.
Passage of the referendum giving constitutional recognition to local government, was expected. But the level of resistance to change within the electorate, given that all the political parties supported the measure, must provide a cautionary message for politicians.