A fall in the live register used to be a cause for celebration. But with the validity of this measure now open to question, it is hard to know what to make of the further fall of 5,100 in the figure last month. It appears to reflect, in part at least, the Government clamp down on social welfare fraud. Presumably the strength of the economy is also contributing to the decline. Whatever the reasons, the live register total - at 268,700 - is now at its lowest level for more than five years.
It is tempting to conclude that the bulk of the fall of 15,600 in the live register over the past three months is due to the campaign against welfare fraud. Certainly this must be making a significant contribution, as people sign off the register for fear of detection by social welfare inspectors. The latest trends would seem to confirm that a worryingly high level of fraud has been present in the system.
However, it would be wrong to suggest that the jobs market is not also performing energetically. All the signs are that the total number of people at work is continuing to grow. But this growth in itself does not guarantee a fall in the level of unemployment, since the creation of more jobs tempts people back onto the jobs market and also lowers the level of emigration.
It is essential that employment levels continue to grow strongly over the coming years. Irish unemployment is still high by international standards, while large numbers of young people are coming onto the jobs market every year. The question for the negotiators now engaged in talks for a new national agreement and for the Government is how best to maintain the high levels of economic growth which we have seen in recent years.
As a recent Economic and Social Research Institute report on the jobs market has pointed out, there is a strong argument for a new national agreement - but not at any price. The report, details of which were published yesterday in The Irish Times, identifies public sector pay restraint as an important ingredient of any agreement. It also points to a significant reduction in long term unemployment in recent years, which it says shows that the common perception that economic growth is not making an impact on this problem, is incorrect.
It remains to be seen what emerges from the talks which are now reaching their high point. It is vital that pay restraint in the private sector is maintained and that the public pay bill is reined in. Already there is pressure on overall public spending next year because of a carry over from the existing agreement. Any further additions to the public pay bill will leave less scope for tax reductions in the Budget. Also, if the Government locks itself into another expensive public pay deal over the next three years, it will severely limit Budgetary manoeuvre, particularly if economic growth slows down.
Negotiating an agreement which has some flexibility is all the more important, because monetary union is on the horizon. In the run up to monetary union and after the introduction of a single currency, it is essential that the Government retain scope to adjust its Budget and that wage agreements can respond to changing economic circumstances.