AS THE North’s First Minister Peter Robinson on Tuesday urged fellow politicians to move on to a “more normal form of government”, an answer came from dissident republicanism in the back lanes of south Armagh. The shocking discovery of a 600lb viable, primed bomb on the Forkhill to Silverbridge road expressed a determination precisely not to allow the North to move forward. The target – apparently a PSNI patrol – was selected in a bid, security sources suggest, to score a propaganda coup by forcing the police to abandon the patrolling of south Armagh by road in favour of helicopters.
With its usual reckless disregard for potential civilian casualties – though even drawing that distinction is dubious – the Real IRA, or an offshoot, sought to demonstrate that they are is still a force to be reckoned with. That much we knew already. Security officials worryingly continue to rate the dissident republican threat from both the Real and Continuity IRA as “severe”. The former murdered two British soldiers in March and the latter killed PSNI constable Stephen Carroll in the same month. On top of that, there have been a number of punishment shootings, road blocks, and a visible hand in rioting. Two other substantial unexploded bombs were also found earlier in the year, testifying to the increasing technical sophistication of the dissidents, although their numbers remain small.
Yet, despite the reality that devolution and the powersharing Executive appear stuck in a rut – not least over the delay in devolving police and justice powers – the strong evidence on the ground remains that politics will not be put into reverse by dissident activities. Despite the limited numbers of noisy detractors in both republican and unionist camps, the broad crosscommunity consensus on the main strands of the peace process remains remarkably robust and unshakeable. Indeed, as if to make that point, while a British army explosives team worked on the south Armagh bomb, in Belfast came news of a pledge from the UDA that it will have finally put all its weapons beyond use by next February. With it, also, the confirmation by Gen John de Chastelain, head of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD), both of the start of that process and an acknowledgment that the UVF had completed its own disarmament.
But a determination not to go backwards is not the same as a political will to go forward. There are fears that the looming prospect of a general election in the UK may tempt politicians back to games of brinkmanship – Mr Robinson’s insistence that devolution of policing can only happen if he is satisfied with London’s financial package is a worrying case in point. And his call on Tuesday for the dismantling of what many agree is institutionalised sectarianism, the system of “community designation”, in favour of weighted majority voting for the Assembly and Executive is clearly premature and politically unrealistic. It will be seen by many as a cynical move to sideline Sinn Féin in favour of possible coalition with the SDLP. The former responded predictably.