Celebration and relief in Indonesia over the departure of President Suharto after extraordinary scenes of protest and unrest have immediately given way to widespread concern about the disastrous legacy he leaves behind to his designated successor, Mr Habibie. This is most readily seen in the economy. It is bound to get much worse before it gets better, as many sectors face complete collapse, hyperinflation looms and international financial intermediaries flee. Politically, much will depend on the cabinet and associated reform programme announced today. Strategically this vast archipelago straddling the world's busiest shipping lanes would pose grave problems of regional stability were it to break down completely.
Internal and external factors were both vitally important in convincing Suharto that he had to go. Last week's popular convulsion against price rises, coming on top of the prolonged student movement and the emergence of credible political opposition movements, made it impossible for Suharto to continue once the armed forces became convinced he should go. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) decision to withdraw funding after the collapse of its latest austerity package and the clear signal from the United States that he should go, left Suharto with no external leeway. It must also be said that the decision by opposition leaders to call off Wednesday's mass demonstrations for fear of violent clashes with the armed forces was a statesmanlike one which may have pre-empted a last repressive instinct by Suharto.
Mr Habibie brings little authority, expertise or popularity to the gargantuan tasks awaiting him. His speech yesterday was long on rhetoric and short on detailed plans for reform. His reputation as a close associate of Suharto, with a penchant for grandiose projects, will take from the plans' credibility when they are announced. But he has several important things going for him. The very depth of the economic crisis and the extensive damage done to the country's commercial infrastructure by arson and looting, have so shocked all concerned that there will be many voices calling for space to consider the next steps. If an acceptable timetable for parliamentary and presidential elections is put forward, many will feel they should be given time for reflection and political organisation.
As always with such momentous events, there is a great contrast between the energy required to tear down old structures and the skills needed to build new institutions and policies to take their place. This has not been a heavily ideological conflict but one pitched against a nepotistic family dictatorship whose development strategies became suddenly vulnerable to Asia's economic storms over the last year. Indonesians deserve international sympathy and help as they make this transition, which could in time be so beneficial for its neighbours and its wider circle of interested international partners. The IMF package precipitated this crisis two weeks ago, just as ill-disciplined and irresponsible lending by western and Japanese financiers drove up its indebtedness and indulgent toleration of Suharto's crony capitalism and authoritarian rule kept him in power. The West must, therefore, accept its responsibility to bolster the Indonesian reform movement.