ONE PROMINENT commentator has compared today's Turkey to an overladen truck with failing brakes accelerating towards the abyss. Another says the time has come to put an end to a political model that has lasted for six centuries in which the establishment sees the country's own society as its enemy.
Both were referring to the demand by Turkey's chief prosecutor that the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be banned for anti-secular activities, which was yesterday agreed. Seen from abroad such a confrontation may seem bizarre, but it is deadly serious and likely to be fought out to the bitter end with grave political consequences.
The standoff originates in a long-standing conviction by Turkey's secular elite - at the top of the civil service, the military and the universities - that the AKP is an Islamic fifth column rather than a popular centre right party with Islamic reformist roots, as it presents itself. The party has twice before been banned only to re-emerge under a different name. Last year it was swept back to power with 47 per cent support from 16.5 million voters, commanding 330 of the Turkish parliament's 553 seats. Its reformist credentials are closely bound up with Turkey's bid to join the European Union, which the party has championed partly as a means to validate liberalisation and social changes needed to empower its own supporters.
That negotiation could now be jeopardised by deep political uncertainty, just as Turkey's economy is being battered by it. The AKP is indicted for its proposal to lift the ban on women wearing Islamic headscarves in universities and for similar changes elsewhere in the educational system. Given that this court ruling was agreed unanimously and the long record of banning political parties there is every likelihood that the case will be heard and a finding against the AKP upheld.
In response there are rumours that the government will try to change the constitutional rules on banning parties and put them to a referendum. Reformist critics of the AKP say that should have been done last year as part of a more general constitutional overhaul which was abandoned in favour of the headscarf initiative. Finding a way through this political minefield will be a real test of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's undoubted political skills and experience. He needs to preserve his political base and avoid being provoked.