More Spaniards voted for Mr Jose Maria Aznar's Partido Popular (PP) than for any other party last Sunday, putting Mr Felipe Gonzalez's Socialist Party (PSOE) in second position for the first time in 13 years. Mr Aznar can congratulate himself on winning more votes than any other centre right party in Spanish history and on finally putting an end to a long period of increasingly troubled PSOE hegemony in national politics. But the 156 seats his party will occupy in the parliament falls far short of the "clear majority" for which he campaigned and which the opinion polls gave him reason to hope was in his grasp.
Whether it is a "sufficient majority" to form a government, as he claimed on Sunday night, remains to be seen. But the options available to him are much narrower than he had assumed in his election campaign, when he was disdainful of any collaboration with other parties which would dilute or after PP policies. If he is to be invested as President next April, he must now seek the backing of smaller parties, and especially of Mr Jordi Pujol's influential Catalan nationalist coalition, Convergencia i Unio, which supported the previous minority Socialist government. The insults traded between the two parties in the past would not make for a comfortable alliance, but our own national politics offers abundant instances of politicians overcoming past animosities and policy differences in order to enter or influence government.
Meanwhile, Mr Gonzalez has been able to concede defeat gracefully, and prepare to hand over the reins of power with his head held high. Despite the serious scandals which have tarnished his governments in recent years, he retains the status of a European statesman. He also remains deeply respected in. his own country as the architect of an ambitious and far reaching project of democratisation and modernisation. For a Socialist leader to preside over 23 per cent unemployment and still retain the loyalty of more than nine million voters, only 340,000 behind Mr Aznar, is a remarkable tribute to his deep rooted popularity.
First reactions to the overall results - and especially the sharp drop in confidence in the Spanish stock market - suggest that Spain is entering a period of instability. However, it may be rather that the Spanish electorate has produced a very sophisticated balance of forces, which will contribute to stronger stability in the medium term. A fifth consecutive term of office for the PSOE would have carried serious dangers of political stagnation and apathy at best, and widespread structural corruption at worst. A fifth defeat for the PP could have led to corrosive frustration in the centre right, and even the re emergence of neofascism as a serious force.
These elections give Mr Aznar an opportunity to exercise the "alternation of power" which he has rightly campaigned for. But they do not give him carte blanche to dismantle the welfare state or progressive social legislation. Nor will he be able to cut back the autonomous powers which the minority nationalities and the regions have gained under the PSOE and its UCD predecessors. Mr Aznar has assured the electorate that he wants to do none of these things, but there is a deep seated suspicion among ordinary voters that he does. In short, the electorate has denied the Partido Popular the power to undo the real advances of the post Franco period, while allowing the right to come to power peacefully in Spain for the first time in 60 years. Within these parameters, Mr Aznar, if elected President by parliament, is free to face the daunting challenges presented by unemployment, terrorism and the path to convergence on European Monetary Union in the next four years.