ANALYSIS: Fine Gael's prospects have never looked brighter and delegates at its ardfheis were enthused by the belief that their hour is coming around at last, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE PROSPECT of power permeated the Fine Gael ardfheis at the weekend. TDs and delegates alike were enthused by the belief that their hour is coming round at last after almost a quarter of a century in the wilderness.
Enda Kenny brought the crowd to its feet on Saturday night when he made his first reference to what he would do as taoiseach. The naked desire for victory, and the belief that it is possible at the next election, infused the mood at the ardfheis.
Fine Gael has been riding high in the polls for the past six months as the biggest party in the country, a position it never occupied before in Irish political history.
There is now a real belief in Fine Gael that it can hold on to that status and translate it into seats in the next election.
The prospect of overtaking Fianna Fáil in the Dáil is tantalisingly close. That would be an incredible achievement for a party whose obituary was written by so many people after its disastrous performance in 2002.
No government in living memory has been as unpopular as the Fianna Fáil-led coalition, and it is hard to see how it can avoid being swept out of office whenever the next election comes.
Fine Gael’s problem is that the 30th Dáil has three more years to run and, while few believe that it will last the full course, it is impossible to say when and in what circumstances the next election will take place.
The appalling state of the public finances means that the Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition will be under constant pressure for the rest of its existence. There is no telling whether or when that pressure will cause it to crack.
In the meantime, Fine Gael will have its work cut out to maintain its new-found status as the biggest party in the country.
It has a very delicate line to walk by convincing one segment of the electorate that it is capable of leading an alternative government while simultaneously harnessing the anger of those who want to see full-blooded opposition to everything the current Government attempts.
Fine Gael has skilfully managed to resist the temptation of simply denouncing Fianna Fáil for getting the country into its current state.
In the Dáil, the party backed the bank guarantee scheme in what it perceived to be the national interest. It has also accepted the broad budget parameters, even if it has reserved the right to criticise the detailed policy decisions adopted by the Government on Tuesday.
Fine Gael has also produced a series of policy documents which have demonstrated a seriousness of purpose, and shown that opposition is not simply about attacking the Government.
The other side of the coin, though, is that a significant segment of public opinion, including many Fine Gael supporters, wants to see the Government hounded, day in and day out, and driven from office at the earliest opportunity.
In the Dáil, Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore has capitalised on that mood in a series of strong performances that has turned him into the most popular party leader in the country. He has focused on attacking the Government rather than providing alternative solutions to the economic crisis, and so far that has worked for him.
Gilmore’s high standing has drawn attention to Enda Kenny’s leadership. A recent spat at the parliamentary party became a focus for those, mainly outside Fine Gael, who wanted to raise the issue once more.
The enthusiastic response of the ardfheis to his speech on Saturday night was a demonstration by the delegates of their solidarity with him in the face of persistent criticism.
There is no mood in the party to open up the leadership issue at a time when Fianna Fáil is suffering the kind of unpopularity it has never experienced before.
The vast majority of Fine Gael TDs see no percentage in descending into another internal squabble at a time when the old enemy is in so much trouble.
There is disappointment in Fine Gael that the leader has not managed to make the kind of breakthrough that Garret FitzGerald did in the 1980s, but there is also a recognition that no leader since has managed that feat. Anyway, FitzGerald had to contend with his own coterie of internal critics during his leadership.
Kenny is extremely lucky in his deputy leader Richard Bruton. Not only is Bruton an honourable man who has never sought to take advantage of his leader’s difficulties, he is a huge asset to Kenny in that he gives intellectual weight to the party’s policy positions.
In his warm-up speech on Saturday night, Bruton referred to his leader as “a man of the people and a leader for our times”. Fine Gael’s hopes rest on the combination of Kenny’s popularity with the party grassroots, linked to the wider public’s respect for Bruton’s ability.
Bruton was just one of many speakers during the weekend to point to the fact that under Kenny’s leadership Fine Gael came back from a near-death experience in 2002 to a very successful local and European election performance in 2004, leading on to a gain of 20 seats in the 2007 general election.
The immediate task ahead is to build on that position by becoming the biggest party in terms of council seats on June 5th while retaining its position as the biggest party in Europe. Even with the Fianna Fáil vote in decline, that will not be an easy task as the vagaries of PR overstated Fine Gael’s strength in 2004.
The real objective on June 5th is to damage both Fianna Fáil and the Greens so badly that their coalition cannot survive. The sooner the next election happens the better for Kenny and Fine Gael. Coming back to ardfheiseanna next year and the year after to wind up the attack on the Government one more time is not an inviting prospect.
As things stand Kenny is in a strong position to cap his political career by occupying the taoiseach’s office but the sooner the next election happens the better his prospects are of pulling it off.