When Sonia Gandhi emerged from her self-imposed seclusion 18 months ago to take over the leadership of India's beleaguered Congress Party, she could hardly have imagined that an opportunity to get into government would present itself this side of the new millennium. However, the government's defeat on Saturday by a margin of only one vote may mean that President Narayan will turn to India's most reluctant politician and ask her to form a new administration. If she has any sense, she'll say no.
The defeat of the government in the no-confidence motion did not come as much of a surprise. When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) put together its coalition government 13 months ago, it was a ramshackle marriage of convenience made up of conflicting vested interests for whom the provision of stable, progressive government was not a priority. But the BJP was desperate to get into government for the first time and demonstrate leadership skills; as it had only 182 seats and 272 votes were needed for a majority, it scrambled for all the allies it could get.
And it had to stoop pretty low. The regional Tamil party, AIADMK, has 18 seats and was brought on board with the promise of the law and revenue portfolios. But there was an unspoken expectation on the part of AIADMK's leader, Ms Jayaram Jayalalitha, that the BJP-led coalition would ensure that corruption charges against her would be quietly dropped or at least weakened. In her period as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu from 1991 to 1996, Ms Jayalalitha amassed considerable wealth so conspicuously that the Tamil Nadu voters threw her party out of power. Ms Jayalalitha had also expected the BJP to sack the current Tamil Nadu government which is led by a rival regional party hell-bent on putting her behind bars. The BJP, to its credit, refused her demands and so, last Saturday, she pulled the plug.
While the government was a weak coalition, never likely to see through its full term, its collapse is bad for the economy. The stock market's value is down by over £6 billion and the rupee has fallen against all the major currencies. The certainty that a weak coalition will be replaced by an even weaker one, coming together as India's sixth government in three years, falls a long way short of the stability that investors crave. The only certainty on the horizon is that of fresh elections, probably before the year is out.
Ms Gandhi, widow of one prime minister and daughter-in-law of another, is long enough involved in Indian politics to know that her first government had better be strong and long-lasting. Her Italian birth and the many Gandhi enemies in the unwieldy coalition that is the Congress party mean that failure on her part will not forgiven. She must pick the right time and the right partners for her first foray into government because her lack of leadership experience will be keenly exploited by her enemies in Congress, never mind the other parties.
The winners in an early election would be the BJP - though not of an overall majority. Its 13-month administration fostered economic confidence by pursuing goals of liberalisation and reform and was prepared to tackle the massive food and fertiliser subsidies. On foreign policy it was less sure-footed and succumbed to the nationalist Hindu fervour that is a hallmark of the party. The nuclear testing was gratuitous and greatly damaging to Asian stability. But in pressing on with reforms and spurning the demands of Ms Jayalalitha, the BJP's stock can only have gone up.