If it were left to the SDLP and Mr Trimble's Ulster Unionists, it is probable that the Northern talks could progress in the space of a long weekend to broad consensus on the shape of a possible settlement. At the very least, there would be general agreement on the issues to be addressed in the talks. Instead, the Christmas season has seen yet another adjournment of the process without an agreed agenda. It is hardly encouraging after more than 18 months of what passes for dialogue in the politics of Northern Ireland.
The man on the upper deck of the omnibus - whether in Clapham, on the Crumlin Road or in Clontarf - if he is engaged at all at this stage, is at best sceptical, at worst despairing of the possibility of a successful outcome. In the ghetto areas of Belfast and in the militant IRA heartlands, the sentiments are not nearly so benign. There is growing impatience with the political approach and a resurgent belief that only violence can move events forward. IRA discipline remains effective but there are ominous signs of renewed activity, most visibly in the Provisional's control and co-ordination of the rioting in Derry at the weekend.
Yet senior political figures in the two governments along with the chairman of the talks, Senator George Mitchell, remain optimistic that when they resume on January 12th, progress will be made. The Prime Minister, Mr Blair, sought to be reassuring yesterday on his brief Belfast visit. The Taoiseach has said there is a degree of "play-acting" going on and that the parties to the talks have effectively reached heads of agreement, albeit informally and unofficially. And officials and negotiators alike appear to be fairly sanguine about the apparent irreconcilables which prevented agreement on key issues before the talks broke up for the holiday on Tuesday.
Can the process be assumed to be taking place on two levels? Is there an outward appearance of deadlock with subterranean or back-channel activities taking place simultaneously? In some degree this appears to be so. But there are other factors in play which slow developments, forcing them to a snail's pace. Those of the centre, SDLP and UUP, could define their common ground relatively easily, albeit with the ultimate necessity of hard bargaining and compromising on both sides. But it is recognised by the two governments - and it is an article of faith with Senator Mitchell - that any settlement, to be fully effective, must extend beyond the centre ground and take in those on the outer margins insofar as is possible. It is not simply a matter of finding an accommodation between the two largest parties. There are two governments and eight political parties involved in the talks. And like the desert caravans of ancient times, the travelling speed is the pace of the slowest camel.
The two government have played a difficult balancing game with the fringe parties on both sides, of which last night's prisoner releases from Portlaoise must be seen to be part. By and large it has been successful in keeping them within the process. Senator Mitchell has shown almost saintly patience in his endeavours to keep a coherent frame around the process. But nobody believes it can go on indefinitely. The resumed talks in January will probably see the making or the breaking of the peace effort. But there are still good grounds for optimism.