There would seem to be only one certainty about the rationalisation discussions which got under way last week between CIE management and the group of trade unions - they will not be concluded (satisfactorily at any rate) by the target date of March 31st. Bus Eireann, Dublin Bus and Iarnrod Eireann have deep structural problems and the rationalisation proposals are so radical that agreement would be difficult even if the two sides were close to a consensus. As it is they are poles apart.
The three constituent companies pose different problems. SIPTU negotiators walked out of Friday's meeting on Dublin Bus after just half an hour but that had more to do with inter union rivalries than the proposals on the table. The problems at Dublin Bus are not deep rooted. It has a solid customer base, work practices have changed and it is relatively unconcerned about rivals. The opposite is the case with Bus Eireann. There, the industrial relations climate is gloomy, outdated work practices are entrenched and there is a growing number of rival coach companies coming in to poach lucrative routes - lucrative, that is, when operated by the rivals.
However the rationalisation proposed for Bus Eireann is almost feeble by comparison with that earmarked for Iarnrod Eireann. In 1995 the rail company had revenue of £122 million and expenditure of £214 million. Small wonder then that of the £44 million a year that CIE management wants to shave off the group's costs some £30 million is wanted from Iarnrod Eireann belt tightening of a high order.
It can be achieved but the omens are not good. Iarnrod Eireann employees earn unspectacular basic wages which, in many cases, are almost doubled through overtime and shift payments, mostly for working a six day week. The company wants to end the six day week and switch to five over seven day working where weekend working will be treated the same as Monday to Friday. Operationally, it poses no problem and it would save £6 million a year. The unions have made it clear however that they will not accept any changes which result in cutbacks in their members' earnings.
The unions, presumably, will dig in their heels. The secretary of SIPTU's rail branch, Mr Tony Tobin, has pointed out that the Government caved in to political pressure last year on Claremorris line jobs and similar pressure would be deployed again if necessary. "I'm delighted it's an election year", he added. Because it is an election year CIE can be expected to postpone a showdown. Indeed, Mr Dukes, the Minister responsible, exhibited little grasp of the problems last Friday in an uncharacteristically woolly interview on RTE.
But if Iarnrod Eireann's rationalisation is delayed until after a general election the new government (especially if the Progressive Democrats are in office) may have less patience with semi state employees who cost the taxpayer £2 million a day and refuse to concede operational efficiencies. Realistically, Iarnrod Eireann cannot expect employees to agree to deep pay cuts but neither can the employees justify the continuation of work practices which are no longer operationally justifiable, if indeed they ever were. Time is not on the side of Iarnrod Eireann. EU laws will force competition in rail services, especially for public service contracts. Track use will be opened up. Northern Ireland Railways may see opportunities. And meanwhile Iarnrod Eireann's existing competitor, the main roads, get better and better.