The relentless rise in world population is highlighted today, the day designated by the UN as "The Day of the Six Billion". Some time within the next twenty four hours, the world's population is expected to pass the six billion mark, double what it was in 1960 and only 12 years after it passed five billion. It is expected that the figure will be eight billion within 20 years.
The world's population is increasing because, as this newspaper's Development Correspondent notes in today's editions, among other factors, medical advances and new technology are enabling humans to live longer, while progress in population control has been less impressive. The whole notion of population control has encountered serious political, cultural and religious objections. Today, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) appears to have recognised that coercion has failed in this area. The emphasis now is on education and respect for reproductive rights; it is a milder and arguably a more bland message. The concern must be that for all the UN's positive work in this area, a stronger message is required to take the whole issue of population control out of the shadows and push it up the international political agenda.
The explosion in world population levels may exert a dominant influence on everything from environmental standards to poverty (there is a clear link between world population levels and world poverty) but the issue rarely receives the concentrated attention it requires. Part of the reason for this is that the West has long ago solved its population problem. But the inaction may also reflect confidence among Western policy makers that the issue is less of a threat to global stability than it seemed even three decades ago. The predictions of global catastrophe with hundreds of millions dying of starvation have not materialised. Today there is a new confidence that scientific advances - such as the use of genetically modified organisms to increase food yields - will allow the world to cope with increased numbers.
It is also the case that some progress is being made. The rate of increase in world population levels has slowed and should begin to level off when the 10 billion figure is reached. But confidence in scientific advances should not obscure the fundamental question - how will the world cope with greatly increased population in the short to medium term?
There is much that can be done to improve the living conditions of those in the developing world who must bear the brunt of the problems. A substantial shift in the international trading order in favour of those countries producing food and raw materials would help. A reduction in consumption in the developed world and, critically, the elimination of Third World debt must also form part of a solution. All this would require a sea change in thinking, political and economic priorities and, perhaps, in moral values. At this moment, as world population passes another landmark, there is scant evidence that this will be forthcoming.