All the indications from well informed sources are that Mr John Major is not willing to respond positively to the most recent set of proposals for a renewal of the IRA's ceasefire and that there will be no public statement of acceptance from the British Prime Minister at this time.
These are the indications. They are what Whitehall and Downing Street sources want to be understood. The question is whether they reflect an absolute hardening of stance or if they are part of a conditioning process which may yet enable the Prime Minister to make a response which falls short of republican expectations. The next couple of weeks - possibly the next few days will be critical.
The Prime Minister has been considering a document which reflects some months of effort, principally by Mr John Hume but also involving the Irish government, senior Sinn Fein figures and, ultimately, the people who direct the IRA. It describes a new set of circumstances in which the IRA would call a permanent ceasefire, bringing its campaign of violence to an irrevocable close. By all accounts, the document is acceptable to Dublin and recent weeks have witnessed Irish efforts to persuade London to buy in.
Mr Major's room to manoeuvre is circumscribed by his paper thin majority at Westminster and by the deepening political crisis - or series of crises - in which his government is enmired. It might be added that he is further fastened by thinly veiled threats of violence from Sinn Fein, pace Mr Mitchel McLaughlin's warning of a "lethal miscalculation". Any concession will almost certainly cost him the support of the unionists in the House. And there would be a unionist walk out from the Stormont talks.
The IRA/Sinn Fein axis has indicated coldly and cynically that it will live with whatever lies ahead, be that war or peace. And the grave risk is that if Mr Major is seen to reject the proposed formula, there will be a return to full scale hostilities. If the IRA resumes that course, the loyalists will follow and we will return to the bloody landscapes of Greysteel, Frizell's fish shop and other atrocities too numerous to mention.
But the leadership of Sinn Fein is desperately anxious to get into the political process at this time. And the unionists are equally determined to keep them out. Unionist values are not threatened by violence. The deaths of soldiers, policemen, even civilians are not going to cost any of the unionist groupings one inch of ground or one seat in the humblest local authority. The ultimate nightmare for unionism is to see Sinn Fein at the negotiating table, playing by the democratic rules and gathering in electoral strength.
Perhaps that logic will persuade the IRA/Sinn Fein not to play into its enemies hands by reverting to type. If they were smart they would call their ceasefire now and endure whatever processes of decontamination are necessary in order to get into talks. Timing is of the essence. For if there is a resumption of full scale violence there will be no negotiations this side of the British election. If Sinn Fein wants to establish itself electorally it must do so in that election. The tide of opportunity could flow its way some estimate that Sinn Fein could end up with three, possibly four, seats at Westminster. But if full scale violence resumes, it must face many more years in the political wilderness.