The omens get worse by day and by night in Northern Ireland. The First Minister, Mr David Trimble, faces into the annual meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council tomorrow, hands hanging on decommissioning, with nine days to go before the automatic triggering of his resignation. The IRA resurfaces to restate its position that the issue of arms "will not be resolved by unionist ultimatum or on British terms". The Taoiseach tells the Dail that the two governments are ready to deal with policing and demilitarisation but the quid pro quo is substantive progress on decommissioning.
These ominous developments take place against a background of violent overnight disturbances in the nationalist Ardoyne and loyalist Shankill areas of north Belfast. More than 1,000 petrol bombs were hurled at police, 39 officers were injured and eight rounds of the controversial new plastic bullets were fired to bring the mass rioting under control. Violence has erupted on the streets for the first time in some years - a reminder to all of us, as the Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, put it yesterday, of what is at stake at this critical stage in the peace process. There is a palpable sense all round that the political crisis - staved-off for so long with temporary solutions to the same intractable problems of decommissioning, policing and de-militarisation - is inevitable. As things now stand, the Belfast Agreement and its political institutions appear to be heading for a crash-landing within weeks. The strongest unionist supporter of the Agreement has his days numbered. The marching season is at hand and there may be no devolved government to lead the community. All could so quickly be lost.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, and the Northern Secretary, Dr Reid, will start a new round of negotiations with the pro-Agreement parties in Belfast today in a final week-long attempt to resolve the outstanding issues. They will be joined by the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister towards the end of next week. They expect that Mr Trimble will get through tomorrow's UUC meeting since there is no motion to challenge his leadership. But they know that time is running out.
The two governments are acutely aware - in the midst of all of the hopelessness - that the solution to the present stalemate is, and has been, clear. A majority of the people, North and South, gave an overwhelming mandate in concurrent referendums on May 22nd, 1998, for decommissioning, a new police service, de-militarisation and the establishment of devolved and North/South institutions. That mandate is tantalisingly close to being honoured. Mr Ahern and Mr Blair are prepared to compromise on the Northern Ireland Police Service. By all accounts also, Mr Blair is prepared to over-ride his securocrats on de-militarisation. The one obstacle which is threatening the whole edifice of the Belfast Agreement is decommissioning and the refusal by Sinn Fein and the IRA to set out, at a minimum, a time-table for putting arms independently and verifiably beyond use for General John de Chastelain. The IRA restated its belief that the issue of arms "can be resolved" in its latest pronouncement. Sinn Fein is in a stronger position after the recent elections. Politics, it would seem, has gained the upper hand. Let it be crystal-clear. Sinn Fein and its IRA associates alone are to blame if the biggest peace project in the history of this island is allowed to falter. They cannot any longer have it both ways.