THERE IS a possibility that on Sunday when Russian voters go to the polls the party of Prime minister Vladimir Putin, United Russia (UR), may yet lose its parliamentary majority (though not its ability to form a government). It is certain, however, to take a sharp hit – currently UR holds 315 of 450 seats in the state Duma and a recent poll suggests this will fall to about 252. Enough to rule, but not to effect constitutional change unless it leans for support on ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR).
In truth a disgruntled electorate has not been greatly impressed by Putin’s game of musical thrones with the man many see as his cipher, President Dmitry Medvedev. In one form or another the Putin era is in its 12th year, and his decision to contest the presidency in March after four years as prime minister means he could, were he to win a subsequent six-year term, be there until 2024. Despite poor recent polls, the worst in a decade, few doubt he will be comfortably elected.
On Sunday the UR conference renominated him as its candidate with the sort of reception that many compared to former communist leaders’ cult of personality days. But his determination now to return to the top job has annoyed key supporters – Medvedev allies who wanted a second term for their man, Putin supporters in the Duma who resent serving under Medvedev, and MPs who thought their own prospects would have been healthier with a Putin name at the top of their parliamentary lists. The Putin brand has been damaged.
Economically Putin has moved to shake off the country’s post-2008 sluggishness with a financial stimulus package involving increased spending, freer lending to the cash-strapped banks, and new aid to its closest neighbours (though he remains unwilling to help out the euro zone by dipping into the country’s half a trillion dollar reserves). Such expansionary policies – Russia should grow by about 4 per cent this year – are crucially predicated, however, on rising oil prices that have yet to feel the effect of the European doldrums.
But while there are many doubts about Putin and his authoritarian tendencies among voters, though not reflected in his pliable press, the truth is that there is no real choice. The main opposition parties, the old communists and their charismatically challenged leader Vladimir Zyuganov, and the LDPR offer equally grim alternatives. The centrist liberal parties remain tiny. The Putin show rolls on remorselessly.