Perhaps the best that can now be hoped for at Drumcree is that the security forces will do their job with professionalism, courage and impartiality; that protest wherever it comes from will be peaceful and that the day will pass without death or serious injury. At this writing it is unclear what decision is to be made about the parade which is planned for the Garvaghy Road. What is apparent is that obduracy seems to have won out over accommodation, that bigotry has overcome tolerance and that extremism has swept aside the instincts of those who had sought to consolidate the middle ground.
The fears of Catholic and Protestant, nationalist and unionist have been rehearsed at length over recent weeks. The right to march, on the one hand, and the right not to be taunted and provoked in one's own street, on the other, have been solemnised in countless statements and sound-bites. Now, innocent people face fear and violence because neither side will yield. Many will feel inclined to damn both tribes equally for what events have now come to.
That would be wrong. By far the greater injustice is threatened upon the nationalist population which lives along the proposed route of the parade. The sense of violation which faces them is more insidious than anything the Orangemen would be asked to endure in re-routing a march. The privilege of marching the highway accoutered in the insignia of traditional dominance must surely yield to the right to dwell peaceably in one's own neighbourhood. Every society recognises that there are limits to freedom of expression. Nobody has the right to shout "fire" in a crowded theatre.
The watching world knows this. The two governments know it. How unfathomably dense they must be, those extremists who fail to realise the further damage they will do their own cause at the bar of world opinion if they seek to force their way through tomorrow. And how they will have missed an extraordinary opportunity to enhance their stock, to gain the high moral ground and to show the world that the principles of Orangeism can give voice to tolerance and egalitarianism rather than to shows of triumphalism.
Men and women of moderation have tried hard over recent days. The Secretary of State, Dr Mowlam, has worked ceaselessly. Grand Master Robert Saulters has seen his appeals fall on deaf ears. Archbishop Robin Eames knows better than any that what is in contemplation by the hard men is not supported by the great majority of their moderate co-religionists. On the nationalist side, the Garvaghy Road Residents' Coalition has made a considerable contribution to reducing the potential for trouble by refusing to allow sympathisers and supporters from outside the area to join them tomorrow.
Dr Mowlam and her security advisers face a dilemma. No democratically- elected politician can easily swallow the proposition that might will triumph over right. But events like this defy accurate prediction or calculation. A big security presence may prevent serious violence on the day. But what of the long months of July and August that lie ahead, with their parades, their bonfires and their nightly stoking of elemental passions? A decision must be taken over the next 24 hours. Will it be dictated first and foremost by considerations of security and pragmatism? Or will it be grounded upon a more complex and possibly more far-reaching moral calculus? Nobody will envy Dr Mowlam her work today and tomorrow.