IT HAS often been said of referendums in Ireland that you can put a question to the people but there’s no way of making sure they don’t respond to an entirely different one. The chance to hold politicians to some kind of account does not come around that often. Carpe diem.
And so it was with electoral reform in the United Kingdom – a once-in-a-generation opportunity lost. Voters were determined to punish Nick Clegg and his Liberal Democrats for their involvement with the deficit reduction programme of the Conservatives. And so they defeated by a resounding majority the proposal to move to the Alternative Vote (AV) system. Only weeks ago AV enjoyed majority voter support.
Meanwhile, irony of ironies, Scotland’s proportional representation system delivered a result which it was originally specifically designed by Labour to prevent – an unexpected overall majority for the Scottish National Party (SNP), the first time any party has had a Holyrood majority. The argument had been that the traditional first-past-the-post system tended to produce decisive majorities, while proportional representation was a recipe for permanent coalition. Not so, it seems.
Now, on the back of disillusionment with both Lib Dems – spectacularly trounced – and Labour and a sparkling performance by SNP leader and minority first minister Alex Salmond, Scotland appears to have given the latter a mandate for the referendum on independence he has long touted. That’s not to say it will back independence but the political geography north of the border has been transformed. Labour’s century-long hegemony over Scottish politics appears to be over.
The electorate has also transformed the once-cosy internal dynamic of the Westminster coalition. The Lib Dems suffered doubly. Having lost their precious AV, their local vote also plunged to its lowest level in 30 years with the party suffering heavy local council losses across the north of England, Scotland and Wales.
The result will force the party to open up blue water in cabinet between itself and the Tories on issues like health service reform and tax. The party leader, unpopular deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, has to contend with what fellow Lib Dem minister Chris Huhne yesterday described as “extraordinary anger” on his backbenches over Tory bad faith on AV and a deeply dubious personalised campaign. Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown warned that the days when the coalition was “lubricated by a large element of goodwill and trust” were gone.
For the Tories, apart from being left with a somewhat less pliable partner, the news was good as the party held its ground in England. Labour, now ahead of the Tories in the polls and though weakened in Scotland, missed by just one seat an overall majority in the Welsh assembly. It swept through the north of England taking major prizes – Sheffield, Hull, Hyndburn, Lincoln, Leeds, Chesterfield and Ipswich. England, with the decline of the Lib Dems, gave every sign of a return to the old days of the two-party divide.