Schroder Diminished

Voters in Lower Saxony and Hesse have inflicted major political damage on the German Chancellor Mr Gerhard Schröder and his Social…

Voters in Lower Saxony and Hesse have inflicted major political damage on the German Chancellor Mr Gerhard Schröder and his Social Democratic party in weekend elections. It is the worst result for the party since 1945 in Lower Saxony, Mr Schröder's home state, where it lost 14 percentage points.

Voters did not respond to his opposition to a US led war against Iraq; rather they expressed anger over the tax rises, benefit cuts, budget deficits and unemployment which have followed his close victory over the Christian Democrats in federal elections last September.

The result deprives the Social Democrat/Green national coalition of control in the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat. This matters because it will now be impossible for reforms to be pushed through there without an agreement between government and opposition.

German politics have been deeply divided on how to respond to taxation, labour market and health service reforms.

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Mr Schröder has tried to avoid plumping either for free market solutions preferred by the opposition and certain sections of his own party, or for policies proposed by those on the left of the German labour movement who resist changes which would make it easier to dismiss workers or increase working hours.

There is much speculation after the weekend results that Mr Schröder will have to co-operate with the Christian Democrats in what could amount to an informal grand coalition to pursue reforms necessary to revive the German economy.

Growth is almost non-existent and the government has been warned severely about budgetary deficits by the European Commission. The Christian Democrats have hinted that they may refuse to sanction the tax increases intended to overcome this problem to force the political pace with Mr Schröder. He is nothing if not adaptable and may be willing to take up this challenge.

The effects of this result will be felt internationally too. Mr Schröder has made much of his opposition to a war against Iraq. It played an important part in his federal election victory and took on added prominence more recently when he jointly opposed an attack with the French president, Mr Chirac.

Last week's letter signed by eight heads of state or government reminded all concerned that the French and Germans were not the only European voices on Iraq. This result takes further from its political stature.