Safe for now but uphill climb awaits

BRITISH PRIME minister Gordon Brown delivered an effective speech to the Labour Party conference in Manchester yesterday at a…

BRITISH PRIME minister Gordon Brown delivered an effective speech to the Labour Party conference in Manchester yesterday at a time of great personal and political weakness. He found the right tone to insist that he and Labour should be trusted with government in a period of profound change in international economic affairs.

He has probably done enough to stem moves to replace him as leader. This will give him an opportunity to persuade voters that Labour is worth a fourth term in office. But it is an uphill climb against the prevailing national mood which favours political change and is ready to give the Conservatives a serious hearing.

Mr Brown chose to reassert his basic political values and policies rather than to reinvent his poor public image. Presenting his vision of a fair society open to mobility in a world marketplace, this allowed him recall Labours substantial achievements in health, education, employment and economic management in a better light than they have attracted since he succeeded Tony Blair 15 months ago. It gave him a platform to describe proposed policy changes in the detail for which he is so well known. Commitments to abolish prescription charges for cancer patients and improvements in child care play to his strengths as party leader and should improve Labour's electoral appeal.

Political leadership can thrive on changed circumstances requiring experienced management. By putting competent economic capacity in such a turbulent period at the heart of his speech, Mr Brown warned off novices seeking to replace him - whether David Cameron's Conservatives or such internal challengers as David Miliband. He is right to underline how much the financial and credit crisis in the United States has changed the world. If this is indeed a new global age, as he argues, it requires a determined effort to rebuild the world financial system by tackling it at a global, not a national level. And while Mr Brown can validly mock the Conservatives about their support for deregulation, he bears much responsibility for Britain's exposure to this whirlwind. His boasts of having abolished business cycles bear scant scrutiny now.

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Mr Brown denied there is an inevitable political cycle which will see off Labour at the next general election. His failure to call one this time last year gave him an indelible image of indecision and caution. Since then he has had a terrible year, as the economy deteriorated, Labour steadily fell away in the opinion polls and his own position as leader came more and more into question over the summer. This well-received speech looks like deterring an outright contest but a great deal will now depend on how well he can deliver on its promise. His dogged refusal to accept defeat can give him only a temporary breathing space without real achievements.

In any case British voters are tired of Labour after its 11 years in office and naturally look to an alternative. The Conservatives under Mr Cameron have changed their image and sharpened their appeal. Mr Brown has at most two years to show this transformation is only skin deep and that Labour deserves a fourth term.