The news that at least 400,000 Rwandan refugees have abandoned their camps in Tanzania to avoid repatriation, is both disappointing and profoundly moving. Virtually all parties now recognise that the problem of the Rwandan refugees is best solved internally, and not through the perpetuation of camps along that country's border. Refugee camps, though intended as temporary measures, tend to become permanent. In the Rwandan context, they have come under the control of the extremist Hutu elements which were responsible for the genocide in 1994.
The relatively safe return of so many refugees, from eastern Zaire last month seemed to set an example for other groups to follow. The Rwandan government, assisted by the aid agencies, has welcomed the returnees as well as trying to meet their immediate needs for shelter and food. For these reasons, it seemed the conditions were right for a return of the 500,000 refugees in Tanzania.
Now it seems that many refugees are thinking of walking to Kenya or Malawi, both impossibly long distances away. Other reports suggest that they may eventually return to Rwanda, after being turned back by the Tanzanian army.
It is not clear yet whether the refugees are acting of their own volition. The influence of the Interahamwe militias and the former Rwandan army was always less marked in the Tanzanian camps, compared to those in eastern Zaire. Yet some reports now indicate that the refugees in Tanzania were, after all, following the orders of the extremists. This is what happened in Zaire until the camps were broken up and the refugees were able to make a free choice.
Tanzania is an undeserving recipient of such problems. Although extremely poor itself, the country has borne the burden of 700,000 refugees from Rwanda and Burundi over the past two years with exceptional good grace. It would be disappointing, therefore, if the authorities were now to indulge in excessive force to push the refugees in the direction of Rwanda. The declaration made by Tanzania last month that all refugees would have to leave the country by the end of the year now seems ill judged; a carrot and stick approach might have been more advisable.
The sight of masses of impoverished Rwandans once again gathering up their possessions and taking to the road is also profoundly moving. Aid agencies, the UN, national governments, all agree they should return to Rwanda, yet the refugees, driven by a blind instinct for self preservation, decide to travel in the opposite direction.
The latest movements will undoubtedly prompt further calls for Western military intervention in the region. Yet a closer examination of the situation shows that there is no case for sending in troops. The refugees are well fed, there is no shortage of humanitarian assistance in the region, and there are no military threats. Rather, it highlights the need for assistance to be channelled into Rwanda's programme of reconstruction, so that the refugees can have homes to go to, and crops to grow - if and when, they return.