Now that it looks as if the extreme Islamist Taliban movement in Afghanistan is on the verge of achieving control of the whole country, its immediate neighbours, and the rest of the world, are waking up to a number of frightening realities. If the Taliban's devastating military campaign against its opponents is successful, this would be the first time in many years that Afghanistan has been united. Since the movement's success cannot be dissociated from its sponsors and allies it seems that a new factor of instability has been added to the regional balance, in addition to the harsh fundamentalist policies expected to be imposed on the country's war-weary 15-20 million people.
This combination of civil war and foreign intervention has been at play since a reformist palace coup removed King Zahir Shah and his Durrani dynasty from power in 1973. They had ruled the country for some 250 years in alliance with Muslim clerics and had kept it firmly encased in feudal tradition, village conservatism and cultural isolation. In April 1978 the communists seized power promising a thoroughgoing programme of reform and later were backed up by direct Soviet involvement. Soviet troops were forced to withdraw after a decade-long civil war in which the mujehideen were backed by a combination of United States, Pakistani and Saudi Arabian aid. The failure to consolidate their victory fragmented this movement into a number of factions, each sponsored by regional powers such as Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tadjikistan, Uzbekistan and the Saudis. It was supplanted from 1995 by the Taliban movement, based on youths from the villages, led by the clerics and proclaiming the most strict regime for women and criminals. They have been solidly supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia - and opposed by Iran and Russia. Behind the Pakistanis, informed commentators discern continuing US support for the Taliban movement, driven by geopolitical and realpolitik concerns, especially their desire to prevent Iran controlling oil and gas pipelines opening up from the neighbouring former states of the Soviet Union.
Afghanistan's recent history therefore throws up a macabre and contradictory set of alliances and political forces. The man suspected of being behind the bombings of US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam last week, Ossama Bin Laden, a Saudi millionaire, is closely linked with the Taliban movement; so are the various Islamic militants who fanned out after 1989 to Sudan, Egypt, Algeria and other countries, having thrived on US support in the 1980s. Given these facts, the French newspaper Le Monde yesterday described the US as a sorcerer's apprentice - one who instigates a process but is then unable to control it. President Clinton would be well advised to re-evaluate US policy towards Iran, which has supported a mediation with the Afghan opposition. A new US relationship with Iran's new president, Muhammad Khatami, would make it much easier to contain the extremism and regional instability flowing from the Taliban's victories in Afghanistan.