FOR ANGELA Merkel, Sunday’s state election in North Rhine-Westphalia was in effect as close to a general election as made no difference. The result, a disastrous rout of the German chancellor’s Christian Democrat Union (CDU) in the country’s most populous state, will not only see power slipping from the grasp of her party and its coalition partner in a state they have controlled since 2005, but also jeopardises her national majority in the upper house of parliament.
The looming prospect of this first popular test had stayed the hand of the seven-month-old federal government coalition from more radical measures in the chancellor and Free Democrats’ (FDP) programme – sweeping tax cuts, the extension of the lifespan of nuclear power plants, or the overhauling of healthcare. Although there are no more state elections this year, she may now find getting policies approved during the remaining 3½-year term of her government an uphill struggle.
For the CDU it is the worst result in the state since 1950 – the loss of a quarter of its vote, bringing its share down to 34.6 per cent, on a par with the Social Democrat Party (SPD) which suffered a small decline. That makes a coalition between the SPD and the election’s real beneficiaries, the Greens – with possible, but controversial, reliance on the Left party – the most likely government for state capital Düsseldorf. Such a coalition’s six-strong delegation to the 69-seat Bundesrat, the regionally elected upper house, would tip the balance against the CDU/FDP’s current majority of 37 and require Dr Merkel to negotiate every Bill with the opposition. The FDP influence is likely to wane seriously. An alternative, a grand coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia, involving the SPD and the CDU, might be difficult to put together but might also preserve Dr Merkel’s tenuous Bundesrat majority.
Voters in the state that encompasses the Ruhr, the traditional industrial heartland of the country, appear to have been most preoccupied by job losses and closures of factories and mines. What will come as a relief to Germany’s EU partners is the evidence, contrary to widespread pre-election speculation, that most were not unduly preoccupied with Friday’s vote through of the €22.4 billion German share of the Greek bailout or Dr Merkel’s allegedly indecisive leadership on the issue. In an exit poll by YouGov, just 21 per cent of North Rhine- Westphalia voters said the Greek deal influenced their choice on Sunday.