The recall of the Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, to London and his replacement by the Welsh Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, is a clear indication that the British government does not envisage an early resolution of the problems besetting the Belfast Agreement.
A reluctant acceptance had grown in both Dublin and London that, with fresh elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly due in May, the kind of initiatives and concessions required to re-establish trust between the pro-Agreement parties and to reactivate the Northern institutions were unlikely to materialise.
This was, then, probably the most acceptable time for a reshuffle. The two Governments are now expected to take the initiative in addressing the four remaining areas of contention: policing, demilitarisation, decommissioning and the stability of the Northern Ireland institutions.
It would be wrong to regard the appointment of Mr Reid as chairman of the British Labour Party as a demotion or a mark of failure in Belfast. What it does indicate is that the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, values his combative, loquacious style and believes Dr Reid will make a significant contribution to the more effective running of his party and his government at Westminster. And while the Ulster Unionist Party has suggested a link between his transfer and the initial handling of IRA intelligence-gathering activities at Stormont, that would be an extremely tenuous connection.
Dr Reid's blunt style did not endear him to politicians in Northern Ireland during his two years as Northern Secretary and their responses to his departure were lukewarm, at best. Predictably, the DUP welcomed the change as further evidence of the collapse of the Belfast Agreement. The UUP complained he had failed to address problems he had identified. The SDLP regarded him as a better talker than listener. And Sinn Féin spoke of him as a "dismal failure". His relationship with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, was solid and workmanlike.
The reshuffle was occasioned by Wednesday's unexpected resignation of Ms Estelle Morris, the Education Secretary. And while Mr Blair moved to shore up his political base through the recall of Dr Reid, the promotion of Mr Paul Murphy has emphasised his continuing commitment to the Belfast Agreement. Mr Murphy is well known here, having served as junior minister for political development at Stormont with the former Northern Secretary, Ms Mo Mowlam. He chaired the multi-party talks that led to the signing of the Belfast Agreement while, at the same time, he developed and sustained good relations with politicians from both communities.
Mr Murphy will have a tough job ahead of him as the two Governments seek to make progress on a number of fronts in advance of the May elections.