Cyprus and Ireland are fated to be compared, by virtue of deep community division arising from a history of imperial occupation. For many years, both conflicts were regarded as insoluble, intractable to international diplomacy. This stereotype was challenged as international circumstances changed in recent years, leading to intensified negotiations and a fresh spirit of optimism that settlements could be reached. But recent events on the ground Drumcree and the marching season, the weekend clashes in the UN buffer zone in Dherynia have introduced a newt pessimism. How justified is it in the case of Cyprus?
The weekend events arose from an anticipated protest held at this time for several years against the partition of the island by those who lost their homes in northern Cyprus when 60,000 Greek Cypriots were expelled from there in 1974. It got out of hand when hundreds of bikers disregarded the government's belated attempts to ban the protest and confronted Turkish para militaries reportedly drawn from ultra nationalist Turks, many of them brought in spy from the mainland. Their clashes led to one death and many injuries and shocked onlookers and television viewers by their ferocity. Two Garda serving with the United Nations distinguished themselves by their work with the injured, as did the honorary Irish consult, Mr Stephanous Stephanou, who was also injured.
The UN is one among"a number of international organisations seeking to mediate a settlement in Cyprus. They include the European Union and initiatives from several individual states, including Britain and France and the United States. The Cypriot question has become intimately connected to regional politics in the eastern Mediterranean after the end of the Cold War, with ripple effects on centres of power well beyond its shores. An elaborate diplomatic agreement last year linked the EU's future relations with Turkey through a customs union, now in place, to the opening of accession negotiations with Cyprus and Malta six months after the conclusion of the Inter Governmental Conference. One of Mr Spring's achievements in the EU presidency has been to secure Greek agreement to lift its objections to the flow of Mediterranean aid under the programme agreed last November in Barcelona.
The recent changes of government in both Greece and Turkey are further complicating factors. The new prime minister in Athens, Mr Costas Simitis, has staked his reputation on a firmly Europhile approach, which is matched in the Greek Cypriot government. The position in Ankara is more uncertain, as the new coalition between Mr Necmettin Erbakan's Welfare Party and Mrs Tansu Miller's True Path Party unfolds its policies. Mr Erbakan has, on the face of it less commitment to press for a Cypriot settlement that would be linked to an EU accession negotiation. But neither he nor Turkish, Cypriot leaders can afford to disregard popular feeling in favour of exploring it, despite ultra nationalist opposition, or the international benefits that would result. Thus, there is still sufficient domestic and, international momentum behind the Cypriot negotiations to allow for a cautious optimism that they could engage constructively, despite the aggravation which the weekend events have introduced for all concerned.