THE VERY fact that Iraq’s provincial council elections were held peacefully, without major violence or charges of fraud and with a credible turnout, is very significant. Given its recent history of occupation, civil war, sectarian conflict and population flight, it signifies that a more normal politics concerned with local government services is struggling successfully to get out of these convulsions.
Official results are not yet to hand, but the indications are that nationalist parties supporting a relatively strong central government have done well compared to previously buoyant religious and federal ones. Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa party has done particularly well in Basra and Baghdad, confirming his ability to project his message that security has been established more effectively, giving parties and voters the opportunity to concentrate on restoring local and provincial infrastructures. The highly charged Shia Islamic parties that have dominated parts of the country are reportedly weakened, as are Kurdish ones seeking much greater autonomy for that region’s oil resources and government. Sunni parties that boycotted previous polls participated on this occasion.
These elections are thus a good omen for the more important parliamentary ones to be held at the end of this year. There is a more coherent perspective now about how the country might be able to recover from its recent trauma, regain its sovereignty and chart a way out of the damage that has been done to its economy, society and culture. It will be a slow process. There is as yet precious little sign of the national reconciliation required to make a democratic system functional. Any new government must be capable of making lasting decisions on how the country’s oil resources should be shared, a timetable for the final withdrawal of US troops and future relations with Washington, and how to attract back the many talented people who have fled.
National elections, if they are conducted fairly and peacefully, can make a definite contribution to that political reconstruction. On the ground there is a real sense of relief, even of wonder, that the provincial voting should have gone as well as it did. Iraq’s political culture is still dominated by sectarian, tribal and factionalist parties relying on local patronage. But on the evidence of this vote they are having to compete on providing better roads, schools, health and other services rather than on the existential questions of recent years. That is genuine progress.