President George W. Bush delivered a dignified and well-crafted inaugural speech on Saturday, in which he set out his main themes for the next four years. Educational reform, reduced taxation, bolstering defence, compassion for the poor in a weakening economy and a determination to engage constructively with the rest of the world, were identified as priorities.
They will be spelled out in more detail in coming weeks and months, beyond the generalised statements characteristic of inaugural speeches. But it is clear that a different presidential agenda has been installed following Mr Bill Clinton's eight years in office. This is a genuine transition, not only of political leaders, but of policies and circumstances alike. Time will tell if the compassionate tone of this speech genuinely reflects the policies pursued by the new administration or whether they will be more harshly right-wing. Much will depend on how the US economy performs.
Understandably, there has been considerable emphasis on the changing economic circumstances in the US which coincide with the political transition. Mr Clinton, in his final television address, underlined the achievement of his two terms in creating over 30 million jobs, bringing unemployment down and drawing so many more people into economic activity. Now that output and consumption levels are falling, there will be close attention on how President Bush and his team deal with the economy. His plans to cut taxation will have to be tailored to the downturn, although he is determined to proceed with them. They will immediately come up against obstacles in a closely divided Congress, where he will require cross-party support to implement his programme. The rest of the world, Ireland certainly included, has a real interest in how effectively economic policy is managed.
Educational reform has been one of President Bush's major themes. It could give him the opportunity to make his mark initially, since his proposals have popular resonance and broad congressional support. The same may not be said for his plans to bolster the military and to develop a national missile defence system. His critics at home and abroad believe this could trigger a new arms race. Coming on top of difficult trade disputes, this should make transatlantic relations an immediate priority for the new president and his experienced foreign policy team.
Mr Clinton leaves a legacy of substantial achievements in the economic and social spheres. His management of the economy ensured the longest US boom of the last century, which is only now coming to a close. It was bolstered by his commitment to free trade and regional integration and by effective handling of economic crises in Mexico and Asia. He proved adept at borrowing ideas from his opponents and turning them to his own political advantage - a skill that was all the more necessary because he failed to command a congressional majority. It contributed to his deserved reputation as a brilliant political tactician rather than a strategist. On welfare reform and budgetary balances, he was particularly successful, much less so on health reform. This was the great failure of his first term in office, which laid the basis for many of his troubles in the second one.
It has been said that Mr Clinton's character betrayed his skills. The succession of scandals which dogged him in office revealed a man willing to mislead and lie, which he acknowledged in a statement made on the day he left office. But his Republican opponents drove these affairs quite out of proportion and well beyond the tolerance of the American voting public, which remained stubbornly impressed with Mr Clinton's role as a political leader with whom they could identify. His communications skills and sheer intelligence and grasp of detail shone through and make him one of the most popular presidents on leaving office. These skills were highly visible to an appreciative audience in this country, giving Mr Clinton a pivotal role on the Northern Ireland peace process and political leaders here an enviable access in Washington. Such an involvement cannot be expected of the Bush administration; but it is likely that the knowledge and engagement accumulated during Mr Clinton's time will continue to bear on the peace process, to the mutual benefit of both our countries.