Political theatre overshadowed by continuing doubts on holding polls

Yesterday should have been an occasion of good political knockabout focused on the Assembly elections, but instead it was another…

Yesterday should have been an occasion of good political knockabout focused on the Assembly elections, but instead it was another 24 hours of uncertainty and tedium. Electioneering is being undermined by the pervasive uncertainty, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.

It started off lively enough, with the DUP's Ian Paisley reminding everyone that he hasn't gone away, you know. His offensive "rubber lips" comments about the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, were only compounded by his suggesting this fine Offaly native was a Dublin man.

It's what you expect from Dr Paisley, and served to alert everyone to the fact that if the elections proceed as planned on May 29th, the DUP's voice could be the dominant and loudest one after polling day.

Peter "Rumsfeld" Robinson then entered the fray, warning of a "shock and awe" assault on the Ulster Unionist Party, and, as regards David Trimble, a "regime change".

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Mr Trimble also rolled up his sleeves. He said that Mr Robinson reminded him of the Iraqi minister for information, Mohammed al-Sahaf, known as "Comical Ali" because of his "slight" tendency towards exaggeration, and - conjuring memories of hillside rallies and the DUP's previous dalliance with Ulster Resistance - because of his "penchant for berets".

But all this fine political theatre was overshadowed by the continuing doubts over the elections taking place, and the continuing efforts to extract from the IRA - or from Gerry Adams - a commitment that the organisation is ending all paramilitary activity.

Before the election can thrust into top gear, this uncertainty must be erased, but up to last night there were still no clear answers on either the elections question or the IRA ending all activity.

Elections seem more likely now, but are not absolutely guaranteed. Mr Trimble is privately said to want the elections postponed but publicly he must energise the Ulster Unionists for a huge political challenge. It's an invidious position to be in.

There could be a Shakespearean moment in Downing Street today when Mr Trimble meets Mr Blair. Mr Trimble was concealing his innermost opinions yesterday but is said to be incensed that Mr Blair reacted so positively to Mr Adams's speech on Sunday where - to the governments' satisfaction, but not to unionists' - he indicated the IRA would decommission all arms and, with the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement, demonstrate that its war was over.

The Blair-Trimble relationship has been troubled at times but there is a strong loyalty factor between the two politicians, born of necessity, self-interest and some idealism.

The Prime Minister has stood by the UUP leader at periods when he was under the cosh, while Mr Trimble has, through guile, bluff and force of will, persuaded the bulk of his party to maintain dubious faith with the agreement.

To propel Mr Trimble into elections where he could be swamped by the DUP would almost certainly be seen by the UUP leader as an act of betrayal.

So, in deference to that bond between them, and even if it incurred the wrath of the Irish Government, Mr Blair could yet postpone elections if the current circumstances prevail.

But if the IRA provides the answer to the final question - is it ceasing all activity? - and even if that answer is slightly fudged, Mr Blair would probably proceed with the poll.

Mr Trimble would be very unhappy because he argues that what is on offer from Mr Adams is indeed fudge because it does not offer absolute clarity and because it does not necessarily represent the views of the IRA.

At a press conference yesterday he tried to present himself as a politician fully armed for the probable electoral battle ahead, but you could sense his heart isn't yet in it.

The challenge for the Prime Minister at this crunch meeting this afternoon is to raise Mr Trimble out of the trough of despond.

He must convince him that if the IRA delivers the final response, he can justifiably campaign on a platform that it was he, Mr Trimble, who finally brought the IRA effectively to state its war was over - something which the politics of the DUP could never have achieved.

He must also convince Mr Trimble that while he might not trust Mr Adams or the IRA, he must at least test whether its actions - or more specifically its lack of them - are consistent with its words.

It won't be an easy meeting.