The arrest by NATO troops of two Bosnian Croats accused of war crimes came just after leaders of the alliance agreed in principle this week that its forces will remain in Bosnia-Herzegovina after the Dayton mandate runs out next June. These two auspicious and welcome decisions underline both how tenuous is the peace there and the role the international force can play in reinforcing it.
Pursuing the international war crimes mandate vigorously is essential to bring a lasting peace. After a horrendous war, in which mass killings and ethnic cleansing played such a prominent part, thousands of people are liable to be prosecuted for war crimes. However, it is likely that only a small number will actually be arrested and charged. They should be exemplary figures, whose prosecution will send political signals to all involved that the peace process is being seriously enforced. The point applies as much to the states surrounding Bosnia-Herzegovina, which have sponsored and orchestrated its conflicts, as to Serbs, Croats and Muslims within its borders.
It is one thing, alas, to state that principle and quite another to implement it. The war and the peace have been afflicted by a recurrent impasse of will among the international community, particularly where the lives of troops in the international forces might be put in danger. Those responsible for war crimes in Bosnia share many characteristics with bullies. They need to be stood up to, faced down and dealt with in an exemplary manner. When this is seen to be done, populations terrorised by them will gain more confidence to proceed beyond the current impasse and tackle wider issues such as the return of refugees, reconstruction of war damage and economic recovery.
Such a rough and ready philosophy underlies the Dayton peace process. All concerned have come to recognise that progress in peacemaking has been painfully slow and that the NATO-led international force will probably be needed for a long time to come. NATO ministers have asked for a study of the different scenarios and force deployments involved. So far, the special force has been a success in implementing the Dayton security provisions.
Whether and when to make arrests and deliver accused war criminals to the tribunal in The Hague, has depended on political decisions taken in capitals of the participating states. As they evaluate the continuing mandate, governments must weigh up carefully the costs of a prolonged presence against the likelihood that faster political progress will be made by a bolder pursuit of war criminals, whatever the legal outcome.