"The world is not in need of war. The world is in need of understanding." The new Brazilian President, Mr Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, had these words of wisdom for participants at the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday, delivered in a well-crafted speech sympathetically received by his influential audience.
His message that conflicts must be settled politically through the United Nations will be put to a crucial test this week as far-reaching decisions are made about whether Iraq is complying with demands that it disarm its weapons of mass destruction.
The world may be heading for a war in the Middle East in coming weeks or months if politics fails. President "Lula" da Silva's timely warning can serve as a much-needed reminder of the need to understand why this is happening and what can be done to avoid it. As he said, poverty, misery and hunger are the trigger for many kinds of fanaticism and intolerance in today's world.
His call in Davos for the launch of a global fund against poverty and his strong criticism of market protectionism by rich countries come as a breath of fresh air to a world increasingly worried about the political and economic consequences of a US-led war over Iraq. The social reforms he has championed in Brazil succeeding there or in a wider international setting will fail if his message is not heeded - "All our export efforts will be useless if the rich countries continue to preach free trade and practise protectionism." The Brazilian President's call for a North-South dialogue on such policies was dramatised by being delivered to two such different audiences - at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre, where 100,000 critics of capitalist globalisation gathered once again this weekend, and then at Davos where those who run that system congregated in a much less confident mood .
Tomorrow the UN Security Council will hear a detailed progress report on how Iraq is complying with the demands that it get rid of weapons of mass destruction. If the inspectors call for more time to finish their task they must be given it. Iraq is obliged to comply or face the most serious consequences. But as yet there is no clear and pressing evidence that it is refusing to do so. Only the Security Council can decide whether to authorise a military attack. The US government continues to assert its sovereign right to act along with allies irrespective of the council's decision. That would be disastrous for the UN's authority and the legitimacy of international law.
The coming week will clarify the scope and reach of that authority and legitimacy. This process would be greatly helped if another point made by President da Silva yesterday is fully understood - that the case for peace is not only moral but rational as well.