OPINION:The remarkable thing about the PDs was that the party, founded by leading Fianna Fáil dissidents, proved most attractive to disillusioned Fine Gael voters, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE PROGRESSIVE Democrats may have been but a shrunken remnant of the party it once was, but the decision made by the members in Mullingar at the weekend to depart the political stage is likely to have significant political consequences in the years ahead.
The immediate political question is how long Mary Harney will remain in Cabinet, but there are some more fundamental questions about what impact the winding up of the PDs will have on the future of the Irish political system.
Harney made it clear that she sees no problem about continuing for the moment as Minister for Health, if that is what Taoiseach Brian Cowen wants. Even if he does decide to keep her on as an Independent Cabinet Minister it is unlikely that she will remain in office much longer than the European and local elections in June of next year.
At that stage Cowen will probably want to reshuffle his Cabinet anyway, assuming that the Government is still in office, and it would represent an opportunity for him to try and given the Cabinet a fresh look after the battering it will have taken by then.
Harney's departure may have a greater impact than many anticipate. After Cowen she is the most experienced politician at the Cabinet table and has been a loyal and shrewd colleague to have, regardless of the public impact of recent events.
She appears to be one of the few Ministers at Cabinet capable of grasping the frightening reality of the new economic situation the country is now. While some colleagues have carried on the old ministerial game of protecting their own little patches, regardless of the wider context, she loyally sought to help the relatively inexperienced Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan find a way out of the crisis in the public finances. Replacing her will not be easy.
In party political terms the departure of the PDs will complete the process begun in the last election of the party being rolled up by Fine Gael. Since the first election contested by the PDs in 1987, Fine Gael has never managed to win over 30 per cent of the vote and that has crippled its capacity to present itself to the electorate as the alternative leader of a government to Fianna Fáil.
In the eight general elections that took place in the 21 years between 1961 to the 1982, Fine Gael's share of the vote ranged from 31 per cent to 39 per cent. In the six elections between 1987 and 2007 it ranged from 22 per cent to 29 per cent. The presence of the PDs was the critical difference between the two periods.
The remarkable thing about the PDs was that the party, founded by leading Fianna Fáil dissidents, and which coalesced three times with Fianna Fáil, proved most attractive to disillusioned Fine Gael voters.
With the PDs now formally gone there is a real opportunity not only for Fine Gael to build itself back into a viable part of government but to challenge Fianna Fáil's dominance at the biggest party in the state.
That opportunity has been provided by the truly awful state of the public finances coupled with the economic recession, much of which can be laid at Fianna Fáil's door. For the first time in generations Fine Gael has a chance of toppling Fianna Fáil from its dominant perch if it can come up with a coherent approach to the country's difficulties.
That, however, poses a real dilemma for Fine Gael. Richard Bruton has been outstanding as the party's finance spokesman, but the only policy most of his front bench colleagues have engaged in is populist Government bashing while fostering the dangerous illusion that the State's resources are infinite. Of course, Fianna Fáil would do the same to them, and much more, if the positions were reversed, but it does raise some doubts about Fine Gael's ability, if elected to government, to implement the kind of cuts in public spending that are required.
It has also helped to fuel the electorate's mood of self denial about what needs to be done by whoever is in power.
The other difficulty faced by Fine Gael is that the party's only chance of achieving office appears to be in a coalition with Labour. If Labour continues to regard all public spending as sacrosanct then the prospect of the two parties being able to deal with the country's problems looks remote.
Fine Gael lost a chunk of its supporters to the PDs in the 1980s precisely because it had to accommodate Labour concerns in Government. It has to decide now whether it wants to occupy the centre-right ground and build itself up as a rival to Fianna Fáil, or whether it needs to keep good relations with Labour as its priority.
The scale of the financial and economic tsunami the country is now facing may well make traditional political calculations redundant. The story of the PDs was inextricably linked with the transformation of Ireland into a modern prosperous nation. As they depart, the question is whether that prosperity can survive.