Israel's politics are complicated enough already as general elections loom in May, but now its politicians and voters have to contend with a revolt by the ultraOrthodox minority whose privileges have come under scrutiny by the country's supreme court. The issues go to the core of the state's identity, raising the question of whether Israel is a secular democracy populated largely by Jews and governed by civil law, or a Jewish state in which Jewish law must determine religious observance.
Israel's political leaders have referred to the possibility of civil war on this question, so seriously do they take it. They are put in a very difficult position by the political mobilisation of ultra-Orthodox strength so visible at demonstrations in Jerusalem last Sunday. A population of about 600,000 ultra-Orthodox believers in a state with 10 times that population is in a strong position to determine the fate of coalitions in Israel's fragmented political system by insisting on subsidies and special laws protecting its privileges. Without its support Mr Netanyahu's right-wing coalition could not survive; nor could most conceivable Labour-dominated ones. The politicians are loath to contemplate a grand coalition directed specifically against the granting of continuing privileges to the ultra-Orthodox; but if the supreme court's rulings are to be obeyed and respected - as most Israelis want - political leaders may have little option but to do so. Inevitably this issue will spill over into the peace process with the Palestinians and Arab states.
At immediate issue are recent rulings by the supreme court which could open the way to draft 30,000 full-time religious students into the army; to open shops and cinemas on the sabbath; and potentially to undermine the sole right of the Orthodox to rule on religious matters. The court is itself hesitant to make decisive moves on some of these issues, suggesting that the Knesset legislate on them. Such mutual reluctance by both the court and the legislature would be a sure way to lose the initiative - and, therefore, credibility - in the eyes of an increasingly impatient electorate, which seems likely to vote tactically on the question in May.
It comes as a surprise to many outsiders that Israel should be so divided. In fact, the majority of its citizens are of the secular persuasion, or adhere to the Reform or Conservative traditions of Judaism. The definition of Jewishness has been on an ethnic or ancestral rather than religious basis, although so far the Orthodox have controlled the elaborate procedures governing conversions to Judaism. It must also be remembered that some 20 per cent of Israeli citizens are Arabs, many of them Christian, while another large bloc is to be found among the recent Jewish immigrants from Russia, for the most part secular but often quite nationalist in relation to the peace process. The vehemence of this dispute between secular and ultra-Orthodox Israelis is a lasting image for visitors to Israel and it also affects Jewish communities throughout the world. The very identity of the state is at stake as it unfolds. It injects an uncertain and destabilising element into the country's politics as its voters face into a crucial choice about who should best direct the country's politics and the peace process with its neighbours.