The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll show Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats to be maintaining their lead over the Government parties of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left. And, with less than a week remaining to polling day, it would seem likely barring a major controversy favouring the Rainbow Coalition - that the opposition parties will be in a position to form a government, either together or with the assistance of Independent TDs or of the Green Party. Since the Dail was dissolved in mid May, the electorate's attitude towards the political parties has remained practically unchanged, in spite of the publication of competing party manifestos and an intensive campaign in the constituencies. Shifts in party allegiances have, indeed, been charted in the regions, but the overall strength of the parties has remained remarkably static.
The Government parties will be deeply disappointed by their Failure to convert a growing public satisfaction rating with their stewardship of the State now standing at an all time high of 57 per cent into party allegiance. In addition, their parties remain stubbornly stuck in the doldrums, with the Labour Party alone putting on a single percentage point, even as the personal satisfaction ratings of Mr John Bruton, Mr Dick Spring and Mr Proinsias De Rossa have all risen by a handful of points. With a gap of 10 points separating the combined party strength of the two coalition options, and a six point advantage for the Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats coalition, it would now take an extraordinary effort by the Government parties to turn the situation around.
The Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, will be delighted by these findings. Not only has his party bucked the trend of previous elections and maintained its share of the vote during the campaign, but his personal satisfaction rating has continued to climb and he now heads the party leaders' "beauty contest" with a rating of 65 per cent. Mary Harney will be disappointed by the fall of seven points in her personal satisfaction rating. But overall support for the Progressive Democrats remains solid at seven per cent and the party has gained middle class support in Dublin. The Green Party will also be enthused by its improved performance.
On the basis of these figures and recent trends, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats may not secure a working Dail majority. And the neccessary numbers may have to be made up by Independent TDs or through the support of the Green Party. The potential instability of such a development is not an attractive proposition at a time when the country faces a momentous period in connection with future European integration and the introduction of EMU. But minority and multiparty governments have proved to be unexpectedly stable and successful in the past. And if the electorate provides such a result on polling day, those chosen to enter the Dail will have to work within the parameters set by the people.
It may not come to that. Sampling for this opinion poll was conducted last Wednesday and represents a snapshot in time. Voters may well change their minds in the last ten days of the election campaign. The volatility of the electorate in the past should caution anyone against making firm predictions at time.