ANALYSIS:Signs of division between the Opposition parties have given Fianna Fáil backbenchers a rare glimmer of hope, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE DÁIL resumes today at a perilous moment in the country’s history. Things have rarely looked as bleak on the economic front and political uncertainty is growing by the day. There is no knowing whether the Government will survive until Christmas as its fate will probably be determined by events outside its control.
Big economic decisions that will have implications for years, and possibly decades, will be made in the coming weeks. First the banking system will have to be sorted out once and for all and after that attention will move to the even bigger problem with the public finances. The Government’s approach to both issues will have a vital bearing on its survival prospects.
The squabble between the political parties about Dáil pairing arrangements, which has dominated the political agenda over the past few days, is pretty irrelevant in the great scheme of things but it betokens a growing anxiety in all quarters about what will happen next. Fine Gael’s attempt to turn up the heat on the Coalition by cancelling normal vote-pairing arrangements when the Dáil resumes took a surprising turn that could have unintended long-term consequences.
It should have been no great surprise to Fine Gael that the Government Ministers would play the wounded soldier and talk about damage to the national interest when they were not allowed to travel abroad as normal.
What was surprising was that Fine Gael appeared so taken aback by the Fianna Fáil response that it took almost 24 hours to put up a coherent defence of its actions. More surprising again was that the Labour Party rushed into the breach in a clear attempt to embarrass Fine Gael and in the process managed to give considerable comfort to Fianna Fáil.
Government TDs have not been in the mood to laugh much for some time but the sight of their two tormenters having a go at each other did bring some welcome light relief into their political lives.
The episode has raised questions for both Fine Gael and Labour and also given the public a hint about the kind of tensions that now exist between the two Opposition parties as they contend for dominance and the role of the biggest party in the next government.
At the Fine Gael think-in three weeks ago Enda Kenny announced that he intended to do everything in his power to bring the Fianna Fáil-Green Party Coalition down and precipitate a general election. A more rigorous approach to pairs was an obvious thing to do but the ham-fisted execution of the policy rebounded on Fine Gael, at least in its initial stages.
Labour’s decision to ride to the rescue of Fianna Fáil compounded the embarrassment for Fine Gael, but in the longer run it may prove even more embarrassing for Labour itself. The move immediately opened up the party to the suspicion that it may do a deal with Fianna Fáil after the next election, whatever it is saying now.
“Whilst the Labour Party enjoys the publicity it obtains from kicking Fianna Fáil for a while, it is always available to Fianna Fáil when that party is genuinely under pressure and in need of a political cuddle,” was the taunt of Fine Gael’s Alan Shatter.
If that impression gets abroad it could be dangerous for Eamon Gilmore and his aspirations to make Labour the biggest party in the Dáil for the first time in its history.
There is also danger for Enda Kenny that his position could come under renewed threat if he creates the impression that he doesn’t know what he is doing.
Most of his internal opponents have accepted that he will lead Fine Gael into the next election, but a handful of inveterate enemies remain and they will do everything they can to mobilise another strike against him if they sense weakness.
Just to add to the political mix the position of Taoiseach Brian Cowen is by no means secure, even if things have settle down in Fianna Fáil after the Galway fiasco.
A mood close to despair has gripped many Fianna Fáil TDs and anything could become the straw to break the camel’s back. What will deter anybody thinking of moving against him is that a change of leader would almost inevitably precipitate an election and that is something which they are trying to avoid for as long as possible.
The sense that an election is looming has made people on all sides very jittery. For instance the macho stance of Fine Gael on the pairs issue was prompted by the declarations from Galway West TD Noel Grealish and Mattie McGrath from Tipperary South that their support for the Government can no longer be guaranteed unless they are each given a constituency deal on local health services.
Fine Gael aims to put it up to both of them as quickly as possible. The first move in that direction will be the moving of the writs for the three byelections, which the party has promised today.
In the next few weeks it will be no surprise if Fine Gael or Labour comes up with a carefully worded motion on the health service designed to force Grealish and McGrath into either supporting the Government or voting against it.
The current voting position in the Dáil is quite confusing given the fact that there are 163 TDs, due to the outstanding byelections, and that a number of Fianna Fáil TDs have lost the party whip. Basically, though, Fianna Fáil can rely on 70 of its own TDs plus two of the four outside the whip. When the six Greens and Mary Harney are added that brings the number of rock-solid votes to 79.
On the Opposition side, when Fine Gael’s 51, Labour’s 20 and the four Sinn Féin TDs are combined, there are a solid 75 votes against the Government.
That leaves eight TDs in the middle, some of whom normally support the Government and some the Opposition.
The real test will be how they vote on major issues such as the budget. The shape of that budget appears to be getting tougher by the week as the country’s borrowing costs escalate. How far the Independents are prepared to go in backing the budgetary strategy will determine whether or not the Coalition makes it to Christmas.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor of The Irish Times