The metro link to Dublin Airport can be built by 2007 for €2 billion, argues John Henry, who says we should have the confidence to get on withbuilding the metro.
The confidence bred by the Celtic Tiger is dead - and Ireland is content to slip behind as a second-class economy with second-class aspirations when it comes to transport infrastructure. At least that's the clear impression given by Frank McDonald in his recent coverage of plans for a metro link between Dublin Airport and the city centre. Personally, I don't believe it.
I'll return in a moment to why the Dublin Transportation Office (DTO) figure of €2 billion for construction of the airport metro link is accurate and the dubious figure of €20 billion promoted by Frank McDonald is simply not a comparable one.
But in broad terms what has been most striking - and worrying - has been the apparently passive acceptance that while other countries are capable of building ultra-modern, efficient, high-capacity metro systems, Ireland is not. I don't believe that either.
Here, says Frank, when we run metro to the airport it will cost not €2 billion but €20 billion, despite a whole range of international comparisons supporting the €2 billion figure.
Here, says Frank, it will take five years more than the target date of 2007. Does anyone really believe this? The overwhelming response to the Irish Times coverage in transport planning circles has been: "Come on, Frank - Get a grip!"
By coincidence, right in the midst of Frank McDonald's coverage, the DTO played host to a group of public sector chief executives from Copenhagen in Denmark - where a brand new metro system is due to open in October.
The parallels with Dublin are extraordinary.
The first stretch in Copenhagen is 14 km long, the same as the Dublin Airport to the city centre stretch. It is roughly 50 per cent underground, the same as the Dublin stretch, so tunnelling was included.
And it will cost in or around €1.3 billion - right there in line with the DTO estimates for Dublin.
And there's a long and convincing list of other international examples, from Santiago in Chile to Sydney in Australia.
But here, says Frank McDonald, here in Ireland 14 km will cost €20 billion.
So, in so far as we can, let's look at that figure. How is it made up? Nobody knows. It's apparently contained in a leaked KPMG report for the Railway Procurement Agency, which Frank does not appear to actually possess, and some of the details of which were communicated through that most unbiased filter, "reliable sources".
Frank McDonald tells us his €20 billion is apparently a calculation over 20 years, including the cost of construction, franchising, operation, maintenance and interest charges.
He then goes on to use that figure to rubbish our €2 billion figure for construction only. He does this comparing two sets of completely incomparable figures, and using one to undermine the other.
And even on the basis of a figure which includes construction, franchising, operation, maintenance and interest (and we still have no real evidence to show that this actually is the basis of the calculation) surely there's something missing here - as the DTO pointed out to McDonald the day before he published his initial article.
What about revenue? Surely if this figure is calculated over 20 years, during a large proportion of which metro will be operational, revenue should be factored into the equation - even given the one simple fact that passenger numbers at Dublin Airport are expected to increase from 14 million this year to 30 million by 2018.
Then - mirabile dictu - hot on the heels of Frank's initial story (Wednesday, August 7th) comes a feature article (Saturday, August 10th) under the heading "Metro's costs put the project in doubt".
More than half-way through a historical review of the metro project he makes the remarkable discovery: "Neither does the projected figure (€20 billion) make any allowance for revenue, though it is clear that fares alone will go nowhere near meeting the full cost, and, hence, the Exchequer would have to meet the shortfall if the PPP is to work."
We - the DTO - had pointed out to Frank before he wrote his article that the figures hadn't taken revenue into account. Then he ignored it; now it's a highly significant point.
And, as far as the Exchequer is concerned, the funding of the metro has always been regarded as a mixture of Exchequer funding and public and private partnerships.
A statement from the former minister, Mrs Mary O'Rourke, last January when she announced the start of the procurement process for phase one of the metro said: "It is likely that the project will be funded by a combination of State and private sector finance".
In defence of the Government, there's been no change at all from its stated position.
Despite all of this McDonald is led inexorably to the view that: "Plans put forward in 1999 by a CIÉ-Aer Rianta working party to provide a rail link from Connolly Station to Dublin Airport via a new spur off the Maynooth line are now likely to be 'dusted down'."
The reality is that building a Maynooth line spur would be no faster, would entail the full planning process, would still involve tunnelling at the airport, would be less attractive to PPP bidders, would reduce Maynooth line, DART and northern suburban line services to other parts of the city - and, even still, capacity constraints at Connolly would allow no more than two to four airport trains per hour at best at peak periods.
In addition, even those trains would be at the expense of services to other parts of Dublin. When the DTO began planning for an airport link we looked - as Frank well knows - at Luas-style trams, with a capacity of 6,500 passengers per direction per hour. That was clearly totally inadequate for a projected demand in 2016 of some 20,000 people an hour. The metro has that capacity.
As well as that, the land-use benefits are potentially huge - if we have the confidence to grasp them. A metro link, with its central station perhaps at the former Carlton Cinema in O'Connell Street, could be the engine for the rejuvenation of a huge area north of the Liffey, from O'Connell Street and Parnell Street, on to Broadstone and Grangegorman, where there are roughly 100 acres already in State ownership.
Let's get on with it. The metro link to Dublin Airport can be built by 2007 for €2 billion. It provides the capacity and the redevelopment potential to make a dramatic and lasting difference to this city.
We should follow our European counterparts. We should not lose this opportunity for want of confidence!
John Henry is chief executive of the Dublin Transportation Office